Ajax W vs Malmö FF W prediction & analysis
Over 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.57 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓
Value bet: Ajax W to win @ 1.95 – our chance 56% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Ajax W 2.1 – 1.3 Malmö FF W expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Ajax W hold the edge on home soil with a 56% chance of winning, against 23% for Malmö FF W.
Ajax W have taken 12 points from their last 6 matches (4W 0D 2L), scoring 4.2 and conceding 1.3 per game. Malmö FF W have 15 points from their last 6 (5W 0D 1L), averaging 2.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
We expect around 3.4 goals (2.1 for Ajax W, 1.3 for Malmö FF W). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 2–1 (10%), 1–1 (9%), 2–0 (8%).
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals at a 64% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.50 is close to our fair price of 1.57. For a bigger price, Ajax W to win at 1.95 is our value angle (56% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Ajax W to win ✗ | 56% | 1.79 | 1.95 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 79% | 1.27 | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 55% | 1.82 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 85% | 1.18 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 64% | 1.57 | 1.50 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 57% | 1.76 | – |
| Half-time result | Ajax W ahead at half-time ✗ | 42% | 2.37 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Ajax W / FT Ajax W ✗ | 35% | 2.82 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 10% | 10.40 | – |
Form
Ajax W – last 6
| 18 Oct | vs PSVEindhoven W | 1–4 | L |
| 4 Oct | @ Feyenoord W | 4–1 | W |
| 30 Sep | @ Aktobe W | 0–1 | L |
| 26 Sep | vs ADO Den Haag W | 7–1 | W |
| 23 Sep | vs Aktobe W | 8–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs AZ W | 5–1 | W |
Malmö FF W – last 6
| 24 Oct | @ Kristianstad W | 2–1 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs AIK W | 3–2 | W |
| 4 Oct | vs Rosengård W | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Sep | vs St. Pölten W | 3–0 | W |
| 27 Sep | @ Brommapojkarna W | 1–3 | L |
| 23 Sep | @ St. Pölten W | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ajax W and Malmö FF W.
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What is the prediction for Ajax W vs Malmö FF W?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Ajax W vs Malmö FF W?
On our numbers Ajax W have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Malmö FF W 23%.
How many goals will there be in Ajax W vs Malmö FF W?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
When is Ajax W vs Malmö FF W?
Ajax W vs Malmö FF W (UEFA Europa Cup Women) kicks off on Wednesday 28 October 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Sportcomplex De Toekomst.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.