FKF Premier League · Kenya
Mombasa Elite vs Kariobangi Sharks prediction & analysis
Mombasa Elite or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
Value bet: Draw @ 2.80 – our chance 59% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +66%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Mombasa Elite 1.0 – 0.9 Kariobangi Sharks expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Mombasa Elite and Kariobangi Sharks on our numbers – 23% for the home side, 18% for the visitors and 59% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Mombasa Elite have taken 9 points from their last 6 matches (2W 3D 1L), scoring 0.5 and conceding 0.3 per game. Kariobangi Sharks have 9 points from their last 6 (2W 3D 1L), averaging 1.8 scored and 0.7 conceded.
We expect around 2.0 goals (1.0 for Mombasa Elite, 0.9 for Kariobangi Sharks). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 66% likely and at least one clean sheet is the more likely outcome. Most likely scores: 1–0 (14%), 0–0 (14%), 1–1 (14%).
Our pick is Mombasa Elite or draw at a 82% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.30 is better than our fair price of 1.22, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Draw at 2.80 is our value angle (59% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Draw ✗ | 59% | 1.68 | 2.80 ▲ |
| Double chance | Mombasa Elite or draw ✓ | 82% | 1.22 | 1.30 ▲ |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 60% | 1.67 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 59% | 1.70 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 66% | 1.51 | 1.44 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 86% | 1.16 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 50% | 2.00 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Draw / FT Draw ✗ | 22% | 4.55 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–0 ✗ | 14% | 7.26 | – |
Form
Mombasa Elite – last 6
| 11 Sep | vs Police | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Jun | @ Naivas | 1–1 | D |
| 7 Jun | vs Nzoia Sugar | 1–0 | W |
| 1 Jun | @ Luanda Villa | 0–1 | L |
| 27 May | vs 3K | 0–0 | D |
| 24 May | @ Mwatate United | 1–0 | W |
Kariobangi Sharks – last 6
| 31 May | vs Sofapaka | 6–0 | W |
| 27 May | @ Police | 1–1 | D |
| 23 May | vs Homeboyz | 2–2 | D |
| 10 May | vs Nairobi United | 2–0 | W |
| 3 May | @ Bidco United | 0–0 | D |
| 18 Apr | vs Mara Sugar | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mombasa Elite and Kariobangi Sharks.
FKF Premier League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  GOR Mahia | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 2 |  KCB | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 3 |  AFC Leopards | 6 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 |  Kenya Police | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 5 |  Shabana | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 6 |  Mara Sugar | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 |  3K | 6 | -1 | 9 |
| 8 |  Murang'a SEAL | 6 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 |  Bandari | 6 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 |  Posta Rangers FC | 6 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 |  Tusker | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 12 |  Migori Youth | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 13 |  APS Bomet | 6 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 |  Ulinzi Stars | 6 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 |  Nairobi United | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 |  Mathare United | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 17 |  Homeboyz | 5 | -2 | 5 |
| 18 |  Mombasa Elite | 6 | -7 | 1 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Mombasa Elite vs Kariobangi Sharks?
Our pick is Mombasa Elite or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Mombasa Elite vs Kariobangi Sharks?
On our numbers Mombasa Elite have a 23% chance of winning, the draw 59% and Kariobangi Sharks 18%.
How many goals will there be in Mombasa Elite vs Kariobangi Sharks?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 40% of the time on our projection.
When is Mombasa Elite vs Kariobangi Sharks?
Mombasa Elite vs Kariobangi Sharks (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Thursday 1 October 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.