Liga Nacional · Honduras · Estadio Emilio Williams Agasse
Lobos Upnfm
CD Motagua
Lobos Upnfm vs CD Motagua prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.35 · bookmaker 1.21 · Lost ✗
Value bet: CD Motagua to win @ 1.82 – our chance 60% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Lobos Upnfm 0.8 – 1.8 CD Motagua expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
CD Motagua travel as clear favourites – 60% to win, against 16% for Lobos Upnfm.
Lobos Upnfm have taken 11 points from their last 6 matches (3W 2D 1L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 0.7 per game. CD Motagua have 13 points from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), averaging 1.5 scored and 0.5 conceded.
We expect around 2.6 goals (0.8 for Lobos Upnfm, 1.8 for CD Motagua). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 58%. Most likely scores: 0–1 (13%), 0–2 (12%), 1–1 (11%).
In their last 3 meetings, Lobos Upnfm have won 1, CD Motagua have won 2 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.3 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 74% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.21 is close to our fair price of 1.35. For a bigger price, CD Motagua to win at 1.82 is our value angle (60% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | CD Motagua to win ✗ | 60% | 1.66 | 1.82 ▲ |
| Double chance | CD Motagua or draw ✗ | 84% | 1.19 | 1.19 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 58% | 1.72 | 1.64 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 74% | 1.35 | 1.21 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 51% | 1.96 | 1.73 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 70% | 1.43 | 1.35 |
| Half-time result | CD Motagua ahead at half-time ✗ | 43% | 2.31 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT CD Motagua / FT CD Motagua ✗ | 38% | 2.62 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 13% | 7.65 | – |
Form
Lobos Upnfm – last 6
| 4 Nov | @ Olancho | 0–0 | D |
| 31 Oct | vs Génesis | 4–3 | W |
| 26 Oct | vs CD Olimpia | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Oct | @ Atletico Independiente | 4–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs CD Marathon | 0–0 | D |
| 18 Sep | @ Platense FC | 2–0 | W |
CD Motagua – last 6
| 5 Nov | @ Estrella Roja | 2–1 | W |
| 2 Nov | vs CD Marathon | 2–0 | W |
| 30 Oct | @ LD Alajuelense | 1–2 | L |
| 25 Oct | vs Juticalpa | 2–0 | W |
| 23 Oct | vs LD Alajuelense | 0–0 | D |
| 17 Oct | @ Platense FC | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
| 22 Aug 2026 | CD Motagua v Lobos Upnfm | 4–1 |
| 1 May 2026 | Lobos Upnfm v CD Motagua | 2–1 |
| 12 Mar 2026 | CD Motagua v Lobos Upnfm | 2–0 |
More Liga Nacional predictions
CD Olimpia1
Olancho1
U3.5Under 3.5 goals
66%@1.46
✓
FT
Platense FC2
Génesis4
O1.5Over 1.5 goals
75%@1.25
✓
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Lobos Upnfm vs CD Motagua?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.21.
Who will win Lobos Upnfm vs CD Motagua?
On our numbers Lobos Upnfm have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 24% and CD Motagua 60%.
How many goals will there be in Lobos Upnfm vs CD Motagua?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
When is Lobos Upnfm vs CD Motagua?
Lobos Upnfm vs CD Motagua (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 00:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Emilio Williams Agasse.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.