Premier League · Lebanon · Beirut Municipal Stadium

Al Ahed

DWDWD
0–2
FT

Al Nejmeh

DWLWD

Al Ahed vs Al Nejmeh prediction & analysis

78%
Footrivo pick

Under 3.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.29 · bookmaker 1.24 · Won ✓

9/10Rating
1.24Odds
2

Value bet: Al Nejmeh to win @ 1.81 – our chance 60% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Quick tips for this match

ResultAl Nejmeh to win ✓60% · @1.81
Double chanceAl Nejmeh or draw ✓86% · @1.16
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.79
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗18% · fair 5.61

Win chances

Al Ahed14%fair 7.01 · @3.94
Draw26%fair 3.86 · @3.30
Al Nejmeh60%fair 1.67 · @1.81
2.16Expected goals
0.61Al Ahed xG
1.55Al Nejmeh xG
53%Both score
42%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

0–118%
0–214%
0–011%
1–111%
1–28%
0–37%

From our goals model: Al Ahed 0.6 – 1.5 Al Nejmeh expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Al Nejmeh shade it despite being away from home – 60% to win, against 14% for Al Ahed.

Al Ahed have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (2W 4D 0L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 0.7 per game. Al Nejmeh have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.

We expect around 2.2 goals (0.6 for Al Ahed, 1.5 for Al Nejmeh). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 58% likely. Most likely scores: 0–1 (18%), 0–2 (14%), 0–0 (11%).

In their last 3 meetings, Al Ahed have won 0, Al Nejmeh have won 3 and 0 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 78% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.24 is close to our fair price of 1.29. For a bigger price, Al Nejmeh to win at 1.81 is our value angle (60% on our numbers).

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultAl Nejmeh to win ✓60%1.671.81 ▲
Double chanceAl Nejmeh or draw ✓86%1.171.16
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗53%1.891.79
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓68%1.481.26
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓58%1.731.75
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78%1.291.24
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗46%2.17–
Half-time / full-timeHT Al Nejmeh / FT Al Nejmeh ✓37%2.73–
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗18%5.61–

Form

Al Ahed – last 6

DWDWDD
30 Oct@ Shabab Al Sahel0–0D
23 Octvs Reyady Abaseya1–0W
17 Oct@ Al Hikma1–1D
13 Octvs Al Mabarrah1–0W
9 Oct@ Tripoli SC1–1D
1 Augvs Jwaaya FC2–2D
1.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5

Al Nejmeh – last 6

DWLWDW
1 Nov@ Jwaaya FC0–0D
23 Oct@ Al Arabi3–1W
20 Oct@ Wathba1–2L
17 Octvs Istiqlol1–0W
12 Octvs Tadamon Sour3–3D
8 Oct@ Al Akhaa Al Ahli2–0W
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

28 Jul 2026Al Nejmeh v Al Ahed2–1
16 Jul 2026Al Ahed v Al Nejmeh0–2
12 Jun 2026Al Nejmeh v Al Ahed1–0

More Premier League predictions

FT Tadamon Sour3 Al Ansar4 82072 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 76%@1.23 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Al Ahed vs Al Nejmeh?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.24.

Who will win Al Ahed vs Al Nejmeh?

On our numbers Al Ahed have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Al Nejmeh 60%.

How many goals will there be in Al Ahed vs Al Nejmeh?

We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.

When is Al Ahed vs Al Nejmeh?

Al Ahed vs Al Nejmeh (Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Beirut Municipal Stadium.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.