Indonesia vs Bangladesh prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.07 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Indonesia 1.4 – 0.1 Bangladesh expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Indonesia are clear favourites at home with a 75% chance of winning, against 9% for Bangladesh.
Indonesia have taken 11 points from their last 6 matches (3W 2D 1L), scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.8 per game. Bangladesh have 3 points from their last 5 (1W 0D 4L), averaging 0.4 scored and 1.8 conceded. Indonesia come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 1.5 goals (1.4 for Indonesia, 0.1 for Bangladesh). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 81% likely and at least one clean sheet is the more likely outcome. Most likely scores: 1–0 (30%), 0–0 (22%), 2–0 (20%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 93% chance.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Indonesia to win ✓ | 75% | 1.34 | 1.02 |
| Double chance | Indonesia or draw ✓ | 91% | 1.10 | – |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 69% | 1.45 | 1.14 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Under 1.5 goals ✗ | 56% | 1.79 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 81% | 1.24 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 93% | 1.07 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 54% | 1.86 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Indonesia / FT Indonesia ✓ | 42% | 2.40 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 30% | 3.31 | – |
Form
Indonesia – last 6
| 28 Sep | @ Malaysia | 0–0 | D |
| 25 Sep | vs Singapore | 2–0 | W |
| 7 Aug | @ Singapore | 1–1 | D |
| 3 Aug | vs Vietnam | 0–3 | L |
| 31 Jul | @ Timor-Leste | 3–0 | W |
| 27 Jul | vs Cambodia | 5–1 | W |
Bangladesh – last 5
| 28 Sep | @ Singapore | 0–1 | L |
| 25 Sep | vs Malaysia | 0–3 | L |
| 5 Jun | @ San Marino | 2–1 | W |
| 31 Mar | @ Singapore | 0–1 | L |
| 26 Mar | @ Vietnam | 0–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Indonesia and Bangladesh.
More predictions
Malaysia6
Singapore0Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Indonesia vs Bangladesh?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 93% chance.
Who will win Indonesia vs Bangladesh?
On our numbers Indonesia have a 75% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Bangladesh 9%.
How many goals will there be in Indonesia vs Bangladesh?
We expect about 1.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 19% likely and both teams score 31% of the time on our projection.
When is Indonesia vs Bangladesh?
Indonesia vs Bangladesh () kicks off on Thursday 1 October 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time) at Gelora Bung Karno Madya Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.