FA Cup · England
Truro City vs Merthyr Town prediction & analysis
Truro City to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.67 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Truro City 1.8 – 0.7 Merthyr Town expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Truro City are clear favourites at home with a 63% chance of winning, against 15% for Merthyr Town.
Truro City have taken 9 points from their last 6 matches (2W 3D 1L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.0 per game. Merthyr Town have 9 points from their last 6 (2W 3D 1L), averaging 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded.
We expect around 2.4 goals (1.8 for Truro City, 0.7 for Merthyr Town). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 43%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (15%), 2–0 (13%), 1–1 (11%).
In their last 1 meeting, Truro City have won 0, Merthyr Town have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Truro City to win at a 63% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.67 is better than our fair price of 1.58, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Truro City to win ✓ | 63% | 1.58 | 1.67 ▲ |
| Double chance | Truro City or draw ✓ | 85% | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 57% | 1.76 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 70% | 1.43 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 50% | 1.99 | 2.10 ▲ |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 77% | 1.30 | – |
| Half-time result | Truro City ahead at half-time ✓ | 44% | 2.28 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Truro City / FT Truro City ✓ | 39% | 2.55 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 15% | 6.59 | – |
Form
Truro City – last 6
| 19 Sep | @ Merthyr Town | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Sep | vs Salisbury | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sep | vs Walton & Hersham | 1–1 | D |
| 8 Sep | vs Leicester City U21 | 4–1 | W |
| 5 Sep | vs Chesham United | 3–1 | W |
| 31 Aug | @ Dorking Wanderers | 0–1 | L |
Merthyr Town – last 6
| 19 Sep | vs Truro City | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sep | @ Scarborough Athletic | 0–0 | D |
| 8 Sep | @ Chester | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | vs Macclesfield | 2–1 | W |
| 31 Aug | @ Buxton | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | vs Chorley | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 19 Sep 2026 | Merthyr Town v Truro City | 1–1 |
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AFC Telford United2Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Truro City vs Merthyr Town?
Our pick is Truro City to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Truro City vs Merthyr Town?
On our numbers Truro City have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Merthyr Town 15%.
How many goals will there be in Truro City vs Merthyr Town?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
When is Truro City vs Merthyr Town?
Truro City vs Merthyr Town (FA Cup) kicks off on Tuesday 22 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.