Azadegan League · IranMes Kerman vs Mes Rafsanjan prediction & analysis
Under 2.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.26 · Won ✓
Value bet: Mes Rafsanjan to win @ 2.75 – our chance 44% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Mes Kerman 0.6 – 0.8 Mes Rafsanjan expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Mes Rafsanjan shade it despite being away from home – 44% to win, against 31% for Mes Kerman.
Mes Kerman have taken 4 points from their last 6 matches (0W 4D 2L), scoring 0.3 and conceding 0.7 per game. Mes Rafsanjan have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 0.7 scored and 0.2 conceded. Mes Rafsanjan come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 1.4 goals (0.6 for Mes Kerman, 0.8 for Mes Rafsanjan). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 78% likely. Most likely scores: 0–0 (26%), 0–1 (20%), 1–0 (15%).
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals at a 78% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.26 is close to our fair price of 1.28. For a bigger price, Mes Rafsanjan to win at 2.75 is our value angle (44% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Mes Rafsanjan to win ✓ | 44% | 2.28 | 2.75 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 75% | 1.34 | 1.35 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 55% | 1.82 | 1.44 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Under 1.5 goals ✓ | 53% | 1.87 | 1.98 ▲ |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 78% | 1.28 | 1.26 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 91% | 1.10 | 1.03 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 60% | 1.67 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Draw / FT Draw ✗ | 32% | 3.13 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✓ | 20% | 4.96 | – |
Form
Mes Kerman – last 6
| 5 Oct | @ Niroye Zamini | 0–0 | D |
| 28 Sep | @ Mes Soongoun | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Sep | vs Saipa | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Sep | @ Fard Alborz | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Jul | @ Sanat Naft | 0–1 | L |
| 3 Jul | vs Naft Bandar Abbas | 0–0 | D |
Mes Rafsanjan – last 6
| 5 Oct | vs Ario Eslamshahr | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Sep | vs Be'sat Kermanshah | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Sep | @ Mes Soongoun | 0–0 | D |
| 16 Sep | vs Havadar | 0–0 | D |
| 22 Feb | vs Esteghlal FC | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Feb | @ Paykan | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mes Kerman and Mes Rafsanjan.
Azadegan League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Pars Jonoubi JAM | 9 | +8 | 21 |
| 2 |  Shenavarsazi Qeshm | 9 | +4 | 18 |
| 3 |  Fard Alborz | 9 | +9 | 17 |
| 4 |  Mes Rafsanjan | 9 | +5 | 16 |
| 5 |  Mes Soongoun | 9 | +1 | 15 |
| 6 |  Shahin Bandar Ameri | 9 | 0 | 13 |
| 7 |  Ario Eslamshahr | 9 | 0 | 13 |
| 8 |  Naft Gachsaran | 9 | +1 | 12 |
| 9 |  Novin Ahvaz | 9 | +1 | 12 |
| 10 |  Saipa | 9 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 |  Naft Masjed Soleyman | 9 | +2 | 11 |
| 12 |  Be'sat Kermanshah | 9 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 |  Mes Kerman | 9 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 |  Naft Bandar Abbas | 9 | -8 | 7 |
| 15 |  Niroye Zamini | 9 | -9 | 4 |
| 16 |  Havadar | 9 | -9 | 4 |
More Azadegan League predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Mes Kerman vs Mes Rafsanjan?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.26.
Who will win Mes Kerman vs Mes Rafsanjan?
On our numbers Mes Kerman have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Mes Rafsanjan 44%.
How many goals will there be in Mes Kerman vs Mes Rafsanjan?
We expect about 1.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 22% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
When is Mes Kerman vs Mes Rafsanjan?
Mes Kerman vs Mes Rafsanjan (Azadegan League) kicks off on Monday 12 October 2026 at 12:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.