Palmeiras vs Fluminense prediction & analysis
Palmeiras to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.71 · bookmaker 1.67 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Palmeiras 1.6 – 0.8 Fluminense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Palmeiras hold the edge on home soil with a 59% chance of winning, against 19% for Fluminense.
Palmeiras have taken 13 points from their last 6 matches (4W 1D 1L), scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.8 per game. Fluminense have 6 points from their last 6 (2W 0D 4L), averaging 1.7 scored and 1.3 conceded. Palmeiras come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.4 goals (1.6 for Palmeiras, 0.8 for Fluminense). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 49%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (15%), 2–0 (12%), 1–1 (11%).
In their last 3 meetings, Palmeiras have won 2, Fluminense have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.7 goals per game.
Our pick is Palmeiras to win at a 59% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.67 is close to our fair price of 1.71.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Palmeiras to win ✗ | 59% | 1.71 | 1.67 |
| Double chance | Palmeiras or draw ✗ | 81% | 1.23 | 1.14 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 51% | 1.97 | 1.62 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 69% | 1.44 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 57% | 1.76 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 78% | 1.29 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 44% | 2.29 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Palmeiras / FT Palmeiras ✗ | 35% | 2.83 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 15% | 6.83 | – |
Form
Palmeiras – last 6
| 17 Oct | @ Atletico Paranaense | 2–0 | W |
| 15 Oct | @ Fluminense | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Corinthians | 4–1 | W |
| 9 Oct | vs Bahia | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | @ Gremio | 0–0 | D |
| 16 Sep | @ LDU de Quito | 2–3 | L |
Fluminense – last 6
| 18 Oct | vs Santos | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Oct | vs Palmeiras | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | @ Flamengo | 0–1 | L |
| 9 Oct | vs Coritiba | 4–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | @ Corinthians | 3–1 | W |
| 15 Sep | @ Platense | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
| 15 Oct 2026 | Fluminense v Palmeiras | 1–2 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | Fluminense v Palmeiras | 3–2 |
| 26 Feb 2026 | Palmeiras v Fluminense | 2–1 |
CONMEBOL Libertadores table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Independ. Rivadavia | 6 | +9 | 16 |
| 2 |  Fluminense | 6 | 0 | 8 |
| 3 |  Bolívar | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 4 |  Deportivo La Guaira | 6 | -7 | 3 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
Our pick is Palmeiras to win with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
On our numbers Palmeiras have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Fluminense 19%.
How many goals will there be in Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
When is Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
Palmeiras vs Fluminense (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Thursday 22 October 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Nubank Parque.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.