Copa Federacion · Spain
Orihuela vs Real Murcia prediction & analysis
Real Murcia to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.65 · bookmaker 1.80 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Orihuela 1.0 – 2.0 Real Murcia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Real Murcia travel as clear favourites – 61% to win, against 16% for Orihuela.
Orihuela have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.5 per game. Real Murcia have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 2.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
We expect around 3.0 goals (1.0 for Orihuela, 2.0 for Real Murcia). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 0–2 (10%), 0–1 (10%), 1–2 (10%).
Our pick is Real Murcia to win at a 61% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.80 is better than our fair price of 1.65, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Real Murcia to win ✗ | 61% | 1.65 | 1.80 ▲ |
| Double chance | Real Murcia or draw ✓ | 84% | 1.19 | 1.18 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 50% | 1.98 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 80% | 1.25 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 52% | 1.92 | 2.05 ▲ |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 65% | 1.55 | – |
| Half-time result | Real Murcia ahead at half-time ✗ | 45% | 2.21 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Real Murcia / FT Real Murcia ✗ | 40% | 2.52 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–2 ✗ | 10% | 9.78 | – |
Form
Orihuela – last 6
| 13 Sep | vs Lorca Deportiva | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | @ Real Murcia II | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Aug | @ FC Cartagena | 0–3 | L |
| 3 May | vs Getafe II | 2–1 | W |
| 26 Apr | @ Las Palmas II | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Apr | vs Conquense | 2–2 | D |
Real Murcia – last 6
| 13 Sep | @ Atlético Madrid II | 0–4 | L |
| 9 Sep | @ Mensajero | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs Teruel | 4–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | @ Hércules | 2–1 | W |
| 8 Aug | @ Albacete | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Aug | @ Cieza | 4–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Orihuela and Real Murcia.
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Cacereño1Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Orihuela vs Real Murcia?
Our pick is Real Murcia to win with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Orihuela vs Real Murcia?
On our numbers Orihuela have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Real Murcia 61%.
How many goals will there be in Orihuela vs Real Murcia?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
When is Orihuela vs Real Murcia?
Orihuela vs Real Murcia (Copa Federacion) kicks off on Wednesday 16 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.