USL League One Cup · USA · Trinity Health StadiumHartford Athletic vs Louisville City prediction & analysis
Over 2.5 goals
Fair pick · fair odds 1.78 · bookmaker 1.75 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Louisville City to win @ 2.40 – our chance 44% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Hartford Athletic 1.4 – 1.6 Louisville City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Louisville City shade it despite being away from home – 44% to win, against 35% for Hartford Athletic.
Hartford Athletic have taken 12 points from their last 6 matches (3W 3D 0L), scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.0 per game. Louisville City have 7 points from their last 6 (1W 4D 1L), averaging 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded. Hartford Athletic come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.0 goals (1.4 for Hartford Athletic, 1.6 for Louisville City). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11%), 1–2 (9%), 2–1 (8%).
In their last 2 meetings, Hartford Athletic have won 0, Louisville City have won 1 and 1 ended level, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals at a 56% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.75 is close to our fair price of 1.78. For a bigger price, Louisville City to win at 2.40 is our value angle (44% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Louisville City to win ✓ | 44% | 2.26 | 2.40 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 79% | 1.26 | 1.30 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 52% | 1.93 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 81% | 1.24 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 56% | 1.78 | 1.75 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 64% | 1.57 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 39% | 2.55 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Louisville City / FT Louisville City ✓ | 26% | 3.92 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–2 ✗ | 9% | 11.18 | – |
Form
Hartford Athletic – last 6
| 26 Sep | vs Louisville City | 2–2 | D |
| 20 Sep | @ Las Vegas Lights | 1–1 | D |
| 16 Sep | vs Sporting JAX | 2–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | vs Tampa Bay Rowdies | 3–1 | W |
| 9 Sep | vs Colorado Springs | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sep | @ Detroit City | 1–1 | D |
Louisville City – last 6
| 26 Sep | @ Hartford Athletic | 2–2 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs Loudoun United | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Sep | vs El Paso Locomotive | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Sep | @ San Antonio | 0–0 | D |
| 6 Sep | @ Rhode Island | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Aug | vs Detroit City | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
| 26 Sep 2026 | Hartford Athletic v Louisville City | 2–2 |
| 5 Jul 2026 | Louisville City v Hartford Athletic | 1–0 |
USL League One Cup table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Louisville City | 4 | +9 | 12 |
| 2 |  Colorado Springs | 4 | +9 | 12 |
| 3 |  Tampa Bay Rowdies | 4 | +9 | 12 |
| 4 |  San Antonio | 4 | +5 | 12 |
| 5 |  Charlotte Independence | 4 | +4 | 12 |
| 6 |  Miami FC | 4 | +6 | 9 |
| 7 |  Charleston Battery | 4 | +5 | 9 |
| 8 |  Birmingham Legion | 4 | +5 | 9 |
| 9 |  Hartford Athletic | 4 | +5 | 9 |
| 10 |  Rhode Island | 4 | +4 | 9 |
| 11 |  Sacramento Republic | 4 | +4 | 9 |
| 12 |  Boise | 4 | +3 | 9 |
| 13 |  New Mexico United | 4 | +3 | 9 |
| 14 |  Indy Eleven | 4 | +3 | 9 |
| 15 |  One Knoxville | 4 | +2 | 9 |
| 16 |  Spokane Velocity | 4 | 0 | 9 |
| 17 |  Brooklyn | 4 | +4 | 6 |
| 18 |  Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 19 |  Lexington | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| 20 |  El Paso Locomotive | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| 21 |  Detroit City | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| 22 |  Alta | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 23 |  Union Omaha | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 24 |  Portland Hearts of Pine | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 25 |  Monterey Bay | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 26 |  Oakland Roots | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 27 |  Sporting JAX | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 28 |  FC Tulsa | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 29 |  Greenville Triumph | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 30 |  Las Vegas Lights | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 31 |  Loudoun United | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 32 |  Forward Madison | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 33 |  Westchester SC | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 34 |  Corpus Christi | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 35 |  Phoenix Rising | 4 | -5 | 3 |
| 36 |  NY Cosmos | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 37 |  Naples | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 38 |  Richmond Kickers | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 39 |  Sarasota Paradise | 4 | -7 | 3 |
| 40 |  Chattanooga Red Wolves | 4 | -5 | 0 |
| 41 |  Fort Wayne | 4 | -6 | 0 |
| 42 |  Orange County SC | 4 | -6 | 0 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Hartford Athletic vs Louisville City?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Hartford Athletic vs Louisville City?
On our numbers Hartford Athletic have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Louisville City 44%.
How many goals will there be in Hartford Athletic vs Louisville City?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
When is Hartford Athletic vs Louisville City?
Hartford Athletic vs Louisville City (USL League One Cup) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Trinity Health Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.