Copa Do Brasil · Brazil
Gremio vs Atletico-MG prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Fair pick · fair odds 1.90 · bookmaker 1.91 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Gremio to win @ 2.62 – our chance 42% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Gremio 1.1 – 1.0 Atletico-MG expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Gremio hold the edge on home soil with a 42% chance of winning, against 34% for Atletico-MG.
Gremio have taken 9 points from their last 6 matches (2W 3D 1L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.0 per game. Atletico-MG have 9 points from their last 6 (3W 0D 3L), averaging 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded.
We expect around 2.1 goals (1.1 for Gremio, 1.0 for Atletico-MG). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 66% likely. Most likely scores: 1–0 (14%), 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (12%).
In their last 2 meetings, Gremio have won 1, Atletico-MG have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 53% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.91 is close to our fair price of 1.90. For a bigger price, Gremio to win at 2.62 is our value angle (42% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Gremio to win ✓ | 42% | 2.36 | 2.62 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 76% | 1.31 | 1.36 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 53% | 1.90 | 1.91 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 62% | 1.63 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 66% | 1.53 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 84% | 1.19 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 49% | 2.05 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Gremio / FT Gremio ✓ | 22% | 4.50 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 14% | 7.12 | – |
Form
Gremio – last 6
| 30 Oct | vs Atletico Paranaense | 2–0 | W |
| 26 Oct | @ Coritiba | 1–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs Cruzeiro | 2–4 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Internacional | 1–1 | D |
| 7 Oct | @ Remo | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs Palmeiras | 0–0 | D |
Atletico-MG – last 6
| 29 Oct | vs Cruzeiro | 0–1 | L |
| 27 Oct | @ Flamengo | 2–3 | L |
| 21 Oct | @ Atletico Torque | 0–2 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Coritiba | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Oct | vs Atletico Torque | 3–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Santos | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
| 16 Aug 2026 | Atletico-MG v Gremio | 3–0 |
| 26 Feb 2026 | Gremio v Atletico-MG | 2–1 |
More Copa Do Brasil predictions
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Vasco DA Gama0Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Gremio vs Atletico-MG?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.
Who will win Gremio vs Atletico-MG?
On our numbers Gremio have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Atletico-MG 34%.
How many goals will there be in Gremio vs Atletico-MG?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
When is Gremio vs Atletico-MG?
Gremio vs Atletico-MG (Copa Do Brasil) kicks off on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.