Deportiva Agropecuaria vs Union Comercio prediction & analysis

Very little separates Deportiva Agropecuaria and Union Comercio on our numbers – 36% for the home side, 38% for the visitors and 26% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.

Deportiva Agropecuaria have taken 8 points from their last 6 matches (2W 2D 2L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.0 per game. Union Comercio have 12 points from their last 6 (3W 3D 0L), averaging 1.3 scored and 0.3 conceded. Union Comercio come into this in clearly the better form.

We expect around 1.9 goals (0.9 for Deportiva Agropecuaria, 1.0 for Union Comercio). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 67% likely and at least one clean sheet is the more likely outcome. Most likely scores: 0–0 (15%), 0–1 (15%), 1–0 (14%).

In their last 1 meeting, Deportiva Agropecuaria have won 0, Union Comercio have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.

Our pick is Under 2.5 goals at a 67% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.50 is close to our fair price of 1.50. For a bigger price, Union Comercio to win at 3.40 is our value angle (38% on our numbers).