Liga Premier Serie A · MexicoHalcones Negros vs Acambaro prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Strong pick · fair odds 1.47 · bookmaker 1.50 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Halcones Negros to win @ 2.45 – our chance 44% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Halcones Negros 2.2 – 1.9 Acambaro expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Halcones Negros hold the edge on home soil with a 44% chance of winning, against 33% for Acambaro.
Halcones Negros have taken 12 points from their last 6 matches (4W 0D 2L), scoring 3.3 and conceding 1.0 per game. Acambaro have 13 points from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), averaging 3.2 scored and 1.2 conceded.
We expect around 4.1 goals (2.2 for Halcones Negros, 1.9 for Acambaro). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 77% likely and both teams score 68% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 2–1 (8%), 2–2 (7%), 1–1 (7%).
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 68% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.50 is better than our fair price of 1.47, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Halcones Negros to win at 2.45 is our value angle (44% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Halcones Negros to win ✗ | 44% | 2.26 | 2.45 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 78% | 1.29 | 1.33 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 68% | 1.47 | 1.50 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 91% | 1.09 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 77% | 1.30 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Over 3.5 goals ✓ | 58% | 1.72 | – |
| Half-time result | Halcones Negros ahead at half-time ✗ | 37% | 2.71 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Halcones Negros / FT Halcones Negros ✗ | 28% | 3.55 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 8% | 13.05 | – |
Form
Halcones Negros – last 6
| 10 Oct | @ Real Refineros | 3–2 | W |
| 3 Oct | @ Ciervos | 5–0 | W |
| 27 Sep | vs Calor de San Pedro | 7–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | @ Artesanos Metepec | 1–2 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Guerreros del Pacifico | 3–0 | W |
| 6 Sep | @ Dragones de Oaxaca | 1–2 | L |
Acambaro – last 6
| 11 Oct | vs Ciervos | 5–2 | W |
| 27 Sep | vs Artesanos Metepec | 2–3 | L |
| 19 Sep | @ Guerreros del Pacifico | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | vs Dragones de Oaxaca | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | @ Delfines Coatzacoalcos | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | vs Cañoneros Marina | 8–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Halcones Negros and Acambaro.
Liga Premier Serie A table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Santiago | 11 | +20 | 24 |
| 2 |  Acatlan | 11 | +5 | 23 |
| 3 |  La Tribu de Cd. Juarez | 11 | +18 | 22 |
| 4 |  Mineros de Fresnillo | 11 | +11 | 22 |
| 5 |  Correcaminos UAT II | 11 | +4 | 20 |
| 6 |  Vaqueros Reynosa | 11 | +1 | 18 |
| 7 |  Guerreros | 9 | -2 | 12 |
| 8 |  Atlético Saltillo | 10 | -7 | 11 |
| 9 |  Real Apodaca | 10 | -10 | 6 |
| 10 |  Héroes de Zaci | 10 | -26 | 2 |
| 1 |  Dragones de Oaxaca | 10 | +19 | 25 |
| 2 |  Artesanos Metepec | 11 | +14 | 25 |
| 3 |  Acambaro | 11 | +17 | 23 |
| 4 |  Delfines Coatzacoalcos | 11 | +4 | 19 |
| 5 |  Halcones Negros | 11 | +4 | 17 |
| 6 |  Guerreros del Pacifico | 10 | +3 | 17 |
| 7 |  Calor de San Pedro | 11 | -7 | 16 |
| 8 |  Real Refineros | 11 | -5 | 15 |
| 9 |  Ciervos | 11 | -27 | 5 |
| 10 |  Cañoneros Marina | 10 | -36 | 0 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Halcones Negros vs Acambaro?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Halcones Negros vs Acambaro?
On our numbers Halcones Negros have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Acambaro 33%.
How many goals will there be in Halcones Negros vs Acambaro?
We expect about 4.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 77% likely and both teams score 68% of the time on our projection.
When is Halcones Negros vs Acambaro?
Halcones Negros vs Acambaro (Liga Premier Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.