Challenge League · Malta

Mgarr United

DLWWW
0–1
FT

Naxxar Lions

WDWWW

Mgarr United vs Naxxar Lions prediction & analysis

62%
Footrivo pick

Naxxar Lions to win

Good pick · fair odds 1.60 · bookmaker 1.72 · Won ✓

5/10Rating
1.72Odds

Quick tips for this match

ResultNaxxar Lions to win ✓62% · @1.72
Double chanceNaxxar Lions or draw ✓81% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗78% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓10% · fair 9.61

Win chances

Mgarr United19%fair 5.40 · @3.94
Draw19%fair 5.26 · @3.48
Naxxar Lions62%fair 1.60 · @1.72
2.95Expected goals
0.96Mgarr United xG
1.99Naxxar Lions xG
60%Both score
56%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

0–110%
0–210%
1–110%
1–210%
0–37%
1–37%

From our goals model: Mgarr United 1.0 – 2.0 Naxxar Lions expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Naxxar Lions travel as clear favourites – 62% to win, against 19% for Mgarr United.

Mgarr United have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.2 per game. Naxxar Lions have 13 points from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), averaging 2.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.

We expect around 3.0 goals (1.0 for Mgarr United, 2.0 for Naxxar Lions). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 0–1 (10%), 0–2 (10%), 1–1 (10%).

Our pick is Naxxar Lions to win at a 62% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.72 is better than our fair price of 1.60, so there is value in it.

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultNaxxar Lions to win ✓62%1.601.72 ▲
Double chanceNaxxar Lions or draw ✓81%1.231.15
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗60%1.671.60
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗78%1.281.18
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✗56%1.781.65
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓65%1.541.41
Half-time resultNaxxar Lions ahead at half-time ✓45%2.24–
Half-time / full-timeHT Naxxar Lions / FT Naxxar Lions ✓39%2.56–
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓10%9.61–

Form

Mgarr United – last 6

DLWWWL
1 Nov@ Fgura United2–2D
25 Octvs Zurrieq0–1L
17 Oct@ St. Andrews2–0W
10 Octvs Vittoriosa Stars2–0W
19 Sep@ Melita2–1W
13 Sepvs Tarxien Rainbows1–3L
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Naxxar Lions – last 6

WDWWWL
1 Novvs Gudja United2–1W
24 Oct@ Santa Lucía1–1D
18 Octvs Victoria Hotspurs1–0W
10 Oct@ Sirens3–2W
20 Sepvs Zebbug Rangers3–1W
12 Sep@ Pietà Hotspurs2–3L
2.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Mgarr United and Naxxar Lions.

More Challenge League predictions

FT Sirens3 Vittoriosa Stars2 602515 1XSirens or draw 85%@1.21 ✓ FT Santa Lucía3 Tarxien Rainbows3 202060 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 70%@1.36 ✗ FT Attard0 Fgura United1 122365 2Fgura United to win 65%@1.53 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Mgarr United vs Naxxar Lions?

Our pick is Naxxar Lions to win with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.72.

Who will win Mgarr United vs Naxxar Lions?

On our numbers Mgarr United have a 19% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Naxxar Lions 62%.

How many goals will there be in Mgarr United vs Naxxar Lions?

We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.

When is Mgarr United vs Naxxar Lions?

Mgarr United vs Naxxar Lions (Challenge League) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time).

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.