FKF Premier League · Kenya
Tusker
Shabana
Tusker vs Shabana prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.07
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Tusker 0.8 – 0.7 Shabana expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Tusker hold the edge on home soil with a 47% chance of winning, against 40% for Shabana.
Tusker have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.0 per game. Shabana have 9 points from their last 6 (2W 3D 1L), averaging 0.8 scored and 0.7 conceded.
We expect around 1.5 goals (0.8 for Tusker, 0.7 for Shabana). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 81% likely and at least one clean sheet is the more likely outcome. Most likely scores: 0–0 (22%), 1–0 (18%), 0–1 (15%).
In their last 1 meeting, Tusker have won 0, Shabana have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 93% chance.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Tusker to win | 47% | 2.13 | – |
| Double chance | Either team to win | 87% | 1.15 | – |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score | 64% | 1.57 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Under 1.5 goals | 56% | 1.79 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals | 81% | 1.24 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals | 93% | 1.07 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time | 57% | 1.74 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Draw / FT Draw | 29% | 3.41 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 | 18% | 5.53 | – |
Form
Tusker – last 6
| 8 Nov | @ Bandari | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Oct | @ Mathare United | 1–2 | L |
| 25 Oct | @ Singida Black Stars | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Oct | vs Singida Black Stars | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Oct | @ Ulinzi Stars | 2–0 | W |
| 2 Oct | vs Mara Sugar | 3–1 | W |
Shabana – last 6
| 7 Nov | @ Mombasa Elite | 3–2 | W |
| 29 Oct | vs Migori Youth | 1–1 | D |
| 25 Oct | @ AFC Leopards | 0–0 | D |
| 18 Oct | vs Nairobi United | 0–0 | D |
| 10 Oct | @ Posta Rangers FC | 1–0 | W |
| 2 Oct | vs Police | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
| 21 Feb 2026 | Shabana v Tusker | 1–0 |
FKF Premier League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  GOR Mahia | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 2 |  KCB | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 3 |  AFC Leopards | 6 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 |  Kenya Police | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 5 | Shabana | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 6 |  Mara Sugar | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 |  3K | 6 | -1 | 9 |
| 8 |  Murang'a SEAL | 6 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 |  Bandari | 6 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 |  Posta Rangers FC | 6 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 | Tusker | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 12 |  Migori Youth | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 13 |  APS Bomet | 6 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 |  Ulinzi Stars | 6 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 |  Nairobi United | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 |  Mathare United | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 17 |  Homeboyz | 5 | -2 | 5 |
| 18 |  Mombasa Elite | 6 | -7 | 1 |
More FKF Premier League predictions
League hub →Kenya Police
Posta Rangers FC
1Kenya Police to win
65%@1.75
3K
GOR Mahia
2GOR Mahia to win
68%@1.50
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Tusker vs Shabana?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 93% chance.
Who will win Tusker vs Shabana?
On our numbers Tusker have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 13% and Shabana 40%.
How many goals will there be in Tusker vs Shabana?
We expect about 1.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 19% likely and both teams score 36% of the time on our projection.
When is Tusker vs Shabana?
Tusker vs Shabana (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 15 November 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.