FKF Premier League · Kenya
Mara Sugar
Migori Youth
Mara Sugar vs Migori Youth prediction & analysis
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.48 · bookmaker 1.36 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Mara Sugar 1.0 – 1.0 Migori Youth expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Mara Sugar and Migori Youth on our numbers – 38% for the home side, 35% for the visitors and 27% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Mara Sugar have taken 6 points from their last 6 matches (1W 3D 2L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.3 per game. Migori Youth have 10 points from their last 6 (2W 4D 0L), averaging 1.2 scored and 0.7 conceded. Migori Youth come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.0 goals (1.0 for Mara Sugar, 1.0 for Migori Youth). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely. Most likely scores: 1–0 (14%), 0–0 (14%), 1–1 (14%).
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals at a 68% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.36 is close to our fair price of 1.48.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Mara Sugar to win ✓ | 38% | 2.65 | 2.68 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 73% | 1.37 | 1.35 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 51% | 1.97 | 1.56 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 58% | 1.71 | 1.57 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 68% | 1.48 | 1.36 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 85% | 1.18 | 1.09 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 50% | 1.99 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Draw / FT Draw ✗ | 22% | 4.50 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 14% | 7.10 | – |
Form
Mara Sugar – last 6
| 28 Oct | vs AFC Leopards | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Oct | vs Mombasa Elite | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | @ 3K | 2–2 | D |
| 2 Oct | @ Tusker | 1–3 | L |
| 11 Sep | @ Ulinzi Stars | 0–0 | D |
| 31 May | @ Murang'a SEAL | 1–2 | L |
Migori Youth – last 6
| 29 Oct | @ Shabana | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs Police | 1–1 | D |
| 2 Oct | vs Mombasa Elite | 2–0 | W |
| 11 Sep | vs Mathare United | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Jun | @ 3K | 1–1 | D |
| 7 Jun | vs Equity Bank | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mara Sugar and Migori Youth.
FKF Premier League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  GOR Mahia | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 2 |  KCB | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 3 |  AFC Leopards | 6 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 |  Kenya Police | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 5 |  Shabana | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 6 | Mara Sugar | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 |  3K | 6 | -1 | 9 |
| 8 |  Murang'a SEAL | 6 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 |  Bandari | 6 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 |  Posta Rangers FC | 6 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 |  Tusker | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 12 | Migori Youth | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 13 |  APS Bomet | 6 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 |  Ulinzi Stars | 6 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 |  Nairobi United | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 |  Mathare United | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 17 |  Homeboyz | 5 | -2 | 5 |
| 18 |  Mombasa Elite | 6 | -7 | 1 |
More FKF Premier League predictions
League hub →Mombasa Elite2
Shabana3
U2.5Under 2.5 goals
69%@1.41
✗
FT
3K0
AFC Leopards0
2AFC Leopards to win
59%@1.91
✗
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Mara Sugar vs Migori Youth?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Mara Sugar vs Migori Youth?
On our numbers Mara Sugar have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Migori Youth 35%.
How many goals will there be in Mara Sugar vs Migori Youth?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
When is Mara Sugar vs Migori Youth?
Mara Sugar vs Migori Youth (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.