FKF Premier League · KenyaTusker vs Mara Sugar prediction & analysis
Tusker to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.72 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
Goal projections appear once goal data is in.
Our analysis
Tusker hold the edge on home soil with a 58% chance of winning, against 31% for Mara Sugar.
Tusker have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.0 per game. Mara Sugar have 13 points from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), averaging 0.8 scored and 0.3 conceded.
In their last 1 meeting, Tusker have won 0, Mara Sugar have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Tusker to win at a 58% chance.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Tusker to win ✓ | 58% | 1.72 | – |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 89% | 1.12 | – |
Form
Tusker – last 6
| 12 Sep | vs Al Ahli Wad Medani | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Sep | @ Al Ahli Wad Medani | 2–2 | D |
| 1 Aug | vs KVZ | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Jul | vs Rayon Sports | 0–1 | L |
| 26 Jul | @ Al Hilal Omdurman | 0–2 | L |
| 14 Jun | vs Police | 2–1 | W |
Mara Sugar – last 6
| 11 Sep | @ Ulinzi Stars | 0–0 | D |
| 31 May | @ Murang'a SEAL | 1–2 | L |
| 13 May | vs Shabana | 1–0 | W |
| 24 Apr | @ Tusker | 1–0 | W |
| 18 Apr | @ Kariobangi Sharks | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Apr | vs Posta Rangers FC | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
| 24 Apr 2026 | Tusker v Mara Sugar | 0–1 |
FKF Premier League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  GOR Mahia | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 2 |  KCB | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 3 |  AFC Leopards | 6 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 |  Kenya Police | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 5 |  Shabana | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 6 |  Mara Sugar | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 |  3K | 6 | -1 | 9 |
| 8 |  Murang'a SEAL | 6 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 |  Bandari | 6 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 |  Posta Rangers FC | 6 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 |  Tusker | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 12 |  Migori Youth | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 13 |  APS Bomet | 6 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 |  Ulinzi Stars | 6 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 |  Nairobi United | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 |  Mathare United | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 17 |  Homeboyz | 5 | -2 | 5 |
| 18 |  Mombasa Elite | 6 | -7 | 1 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Tusker vs Mara Sugar?
Our pick is Tusker to win with a 58% chance.
Who will win Tusker vs Mara Sugar?
On our numbers Tusker have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 11% and Mara Sugar 31%.
When is Tusker vs Mara Sugar?
Tusker vs Mara Sugar (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Friday 2 October 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.