FKF Premier League · KenyaMathare United vs APS Bomet prediction & analysis
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
Value bet: APS Bomet to win @ 3.00 – our chance 44% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +33%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Mathare United 0.9 – 1.2 APS Bomet expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
APS Bomet shade it despite being away from home – 44% to win, against 32% for Mathare United.
Mathare United have taken 5 points from their last 6 matches (1W 2D 3L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.3 per game. APS Bomet have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 1.2 scored and 0.5 conceded. APS Bomet come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.1 goals (0.9 for Mathare United, 1.2 for APS Bomet). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 65% likely. Most likely scores: 0–1 (14%), 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (12%).
In their last 1 meeting, Mathare United have won 0, APS Bomet have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals at a 65% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.44 is close to our fair price of 1.55. For a bigger price, APS Bomet to win at 3.00 is our value angle (44% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | APS Bomet to win ✗ | 44% | 2.26 | 3.00 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 76% | 1.31 | 1.33 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 55% | 1.80 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 62% | 1.60 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 65% | 1.55 | 1.44 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 84% | 1.20 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 48% | 2.07 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT APS Bomet / FT APS Bomet ✗ | 23% | 4.26 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 14% | 7.06 | – |
Form
Mathare United – last 6
| 2 Oct | @ Ulinzi Stars | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Sep | @ Migori Youth | 0–0 | D |
| 31 May | vs Bandari | 1–0 | W |
| 23 May | @ Ulinzi Stars | 1–2 | L |
| 10 May | vs APS Bomet | 0–2 | L |
| 2 May | @ Sofapaka | 2–2 | D |
APS Bomet – last 6
| 2 Oct | vs Murang'a SEAL | 0–0 | D |
| 4 Sep | vs GOR Mahia | 0–1 | L |
| 31 May | @ Tusker | 1–1 | D |
| 24 May | vs AFC Leopards | 2–1 | W |
| 20 May | @ Bandari | 2–0 | W |
| 10 May | @ Mathare United | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
| 10 May 2026 | Mathare United v APS Bomet | 0–2 |
FKF Premier League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  GOR Mahia | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 2 |  KCB | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 3 |  AFC Leopards | 6 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 |  Kenya Police | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 5 |  Shabana | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 6 |  Mara Sugar | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 |  3K | 6 | -1 | 9 |
| 8 |  Murang'a SEAL | 6 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 |  Bandari | 6 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 |  Posta Rangers FC | 6 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 |  Tusker | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 12 |  Migori Youth | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 13 |  APS Bomet | 6 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 |  Ulinzi Stars | 6 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 |  Nairobi United | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 |  Mathare United | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 17 |  Homeboyz | 5 | -2 | 5 |
| 18 |  Mombasa Elite | 6 | -7 | 1 |
More FKF Premier League predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Mathare United vs APS Bomet?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Mathare United vs APS Bomet?
On our numbers Mathare United have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 24% and APS Bomet 44%.
How many goals will there be in Mathare United vs APS Bomet?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
When is Mathare United vs APS Bomet?
Mathare United vs APS Bomet (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.