NPFL · Nigeria · Mobolaji Johnson Arena
Sporting Lagos vs Bendel Insurance prediction & analysis
Sporting Lagos to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.70 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Sporting Lagos 1.9 – 0.7 Bendel Insurance expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Sporting Lagos are clear favourites at home with a 66% chance of winning, against 14% for Bendel Insurance.
Sporting Lagos have taken 9 points from their last 6 matches (2W 3D 1L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.0 per game. Bendel Insurance have 9 points from their last 6 (3W 0D 3L), averaging 1.8 scored and 1.7 conceded.
We expect around 2.6 goals (1.9 for Sporting Lagos, 0.7 for Bendel Insurance). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 42%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (14%), 2–0 (13%), 1–1 (10%).
Our pick is Sporting Lagos to win at a 66% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.70 is better than our fair price of 1.52, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Sporting Lagos to win ✓ | 66% | 1.52 | 1.70 ▲ |
| Double chance | Sporting Lagos or draw ✓ | 86% | 1.16 | 1.12 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 58% | 1.72 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 73% | 1.37 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 56% | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 74% | 1.36 | – |
| Half-time result | Sporting Lagos ahead at half-time ✓ | 46% | 2.17 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Sporting Lagos / FT Sporting Lagos ✓ | 42% | 2.41 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 14% | 7.09 | – |
Form
Sporting Lagos – last 6
| 3 Oct | @ Kano Pillars | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Sep | vs Ikorodu City | 0–0 | D |
| 26 Sep | vs Barau FC | 1–1 | D |
| 23 Sep | @ Enyimba | 3–2 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Abia Warriors | 0–2 | L |
| 13 Sep | @ Inter Lagos | 3–0 | W |
Bendel Insurance – last 6
| 4 Oct | vs Barau FC | 4–1 | W |
| 27 Sep | @ Abia Warriors | 0–3 | L |
| 23 Sep | vs Ikorodu City | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | @ Ranchers Bees | 1–2 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Kun Khalifat FC | 4–2 | W |
| 6 Sep | @ Nasarawa United | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sporting Lagos and Bendel Insurance.
NPFL table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Enugu Rangers | 38 | +20 | 68 |
| 2 |  Rivers United | 38 | +13 | 67 |
| 3 |  Shooting Stars | 38 | +1 | 60 |
| 4 |  Ikorodu City | 38 | +4 | 58 |
| 5 |  Nasarawa United | 38 | +3 | 56 |
| 6 |  Abia Warriors | 38 | -3 | 55 |
| 7 |  Bendel Insurance | 37 | +5 | 53 |
| 8 |  Barau FC | 38 | +4 | 52 |
| 9 |  Katsina United | 37 | -2 | 52 |
| 10 |  Kano Pillars | 38 | -2 | 51 |
| 11 |  Plateau United | 38 | -1 | 50 |
| 12 |  Kwara United | 38 | -1 | 50 |
| 13 |  Enyimba | 38 | +2 | 49 |
| 14 |  Kun Khalifat FC | 38 | -1 | 49 |
| 15 |  Warri Wolves | 38 | -5 | 49 |
| 16 |  Niger Tornadoes | 38 | +1 | 48 |
| 17 |  Remo Stars | 38 | -5 | 47 |
| 18 |  El Kanemi Warriors | 38 | -16 | 47 |
| 19 |  Bayelsa United | 38 | -5 | 43 |
| 20 |  Wikki Tourist | 38 | -12 | 40 |
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Ranchers Bees0Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Sporting Lagos vs Bendel Insurance?
Our pick is Sporting Lagos to win with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Sporting Lagos vs Bendel Insurance?
On our numbers Sporting Lagos have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Bendel Insurance 14%.
How many goals will there be in Sporting Lagos vs Bendel Insurance?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 42% of the time on our projection.
When is Sporting Lagos vs Bendel Insurance?
Sporting Lagos vs Bendel Insurance (NPFL) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Mobolaji Johnson Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.