NPFL · Nigeria · Mobolaji Johnson ArenaIkorodu City vs Kwara United prediction & analysis
Ikorodu City to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.48 · bookmaker 1.55 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Ikorodu City 1.7 – 0.5 Kwara United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Ikorodu City are clear favourites at home with a 68% chance of winning, against 11% for Kwara United.
Ikorodu City have taken 6 points from their last 6 matches (1W 3D 2L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.0 per game. Kwara United have 9 points from their last 6 (3W 0D 3L), averaging 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded.
We expect around 2.2 goals (1.7 for Ikorodu City, 0.5 for Kwara United). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 40%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (18%), 2–0 (16%), 0–0 (11%).
Our pick is Ikorodu City to win at a 68% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.55 is better than our fair price of 1.48, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Ikorodu City to win ✓ | 68% | 1.48 | 1.55 ▲ |
| Double chance | Ikorodu City or draw ✓ | 89% | 1.12 | 1.08 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 60% | 1.67 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 66% | 1.52 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 60% | 1.65 | 1.57 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 81% | 1.23 | – |
| Half-time result | Ikorodu City ahead at half-time ✓ | 46% | 2.17 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Ikorodu City / FT Ikorodu City ✓ | 43% | 2.35 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 18% | 5.45 | – |
Form
Ikorodu City – last 6
| 4 Oct | @ Rivers United | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Sep | @ Sporting Lagos | 0–0 | D |
| 27 Sep | vs Enugu Rangers | 2–0 | W |
| 23 Sep | @ Bendel Insurance | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Barau FC | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sep | @ Abia Warriors | 2–2 | D |
Kwara United – last 6
| 4 Oct | vs Ranchers Bees | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Sep | @ Kun Khalifat FC | 0–1 | L |
| 23 Sep | vs Nasarawa United | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | @ Warri Wolves | 0–1 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Katsina United | 3–0 | W |
| 6 Sep | @ Plateau United | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ikorodu City and Kwara United.
NPFL table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Enugu Rangers | 38 | +20 | 68 |
| 2 |  Rivers United | 38 | +13 | 67 |
| 3 |  Shooting Stars | 38 | +1 | 60 |
| 4 |  Ikorodu City | 38 | +4 | 58 |
| 5 |  Nasarawa United | 38 | +3 | 56 |
| 6 |  Abia Warriors | 38 | -3 | 55 |
| 7 |  Bendel Insurance | 37 | +5 | 53 |
| 8 |  Barau FC | 38 | +4 | 52 |
| 9 |  Katsina United | 37 | -2 | 52 |
| 10 |  Kano Pillars | 38 | -2 | 51 |
| 11 |  Plateau United | 38 | -1 | 50 |
| 12 |  Kwara United | 38 | -1 | 50 |
| 13 |  Enyimba | 38 | +2 | 49 |
| 14 |  Kun Khalifat FC | 38 | -1 | 49 |
| 15 |  Warri Wolves | 38 | -5 | 49 |
| 16 |  Niger Tornadoes | 38 | +1 | 48 |
| 17 |  Remo Stars | 38 | -5 | 47 |
| 18 |  El Kanemi Warriors | 38 | -16 | 47 |
| 19 |  Bayelsa United | 38 | -5 | 43 |
| 20 |  Wikki Tourist | 38 | -12 | 40 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Ikorodu City vs Kwara United?
Our pick is Ikorodu City to win with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Ikorodu City vs Kwara United?
On our numbers Ikorodu City have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Kwara United 11%.
How many goals will there be in Ikorodu City vs Kwara United?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 40% of the time on our projection.
When is Ikorodu City vs Kwara United?
Ikorodu City vs Kwara United (NPFL) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Mobolaji Johnson Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.