1st Division · Albania

Pogradeci

LDDDW
1–0
FT

Besëlidhja Lezhë

WWLWD

Pogradeci vs Besëlidhja Lezhë prediction & analysis

74%
Footrivo pick

Over 1.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.36 · bookmaker 1.21 · Lost ✗

8/10Rating
1.21Odds
1

Value bet: Pogradeci to win @ 1.69 – our chance 63% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Quick tips for this match

ResultPogradeci to win ✓63% · @1.69
Double chancePogradeci or draw ✓86% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.72
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗74% · @1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓14% · fair 7.07

Win chances

Pogradeci63%fair 1.59 · @1.69
Draw23%fair 4.29 · @3.55
Besëlidhja Lezhë14%fair 7.34 · @4.26
2.56Expected goals
1.83Pogradeci xG
0.73Besëlidhja Lezhë xG
56%Both score
49%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–014%
2–013%
1–110%
2–19%
3–08%
0–08%

From our goals model: Pogradeci 1.8 – 0.7 Besëlidhja Lezhë expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Pogradeci are clear favourites at home with a 63% chance of winning, against 14% for Besëlidhja Lezhë.

Pogradeci have taken 9 points from their last 6 matches (2W 3D 1L), scoring 2.5 and conceding 1.2 per game. Besëlidhja Lezhë have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded.

We expect around 2.6 goals (1.8 for Pogradeci, 0.7 for Besëlidhja Lezhë). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 56%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (14%), 2–0 (13%), 1–1 (10%).

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 74% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.21 is close to our fair price of 1.36. For a bigger price, Pogradeci to win at 1.69 is our value angle (63% on our numbers).

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultPogradeci to win ✓63%1.591.69 ▲
Double chancePogradeci or draw ✓86%1.161.14
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗56%1.781.72
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗74%1.361.21
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓51%1.971.89
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓72%1.391.31
Half-time resultPogradeci ahead at half-time ✗45%2.23–
Half-time / full-timeHT Pogradeci / FT Pogradeci ✗40%2.49–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓14%7.07–

Form

Pogradeci – last 6

LDDDWW
1 Nov@ Besa Kavajë2–3L
28 Octvs Oriku0–0D
23 Oct@ Bylis2–2D
17 Octvs Sopoti Librazhd2–2D
11 Oct@ Korabi Peshkopi2–0W
7 Octvs Delvina7–0W
2.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Besëlidhja Lezhë – last 6

WWLWDD
1 Nov@ Oriku1–0W
28 Octvs Sopoti Librazhd5–2W
23 Oct@ Flamurtari0–1L
17 Octvs Kastrioti Krujë4–1W
11 Oct@ Burreli0–0D
6 Octvs Sopoti Librazhd1–1D
1.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Pogradeci and Besëlidhja Lezhë.

More 1st Division predictions

FT Besa Kavajë1 Burreli1 701713 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 75%@1.20 ✓ FT Iliria Fushë-Krujë1 Oriku0 73217 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 73%@1.31 ✓ FT FK Kukesi2 Sopoti Librazhd0 652411 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 64%@1.46 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Pogradeci vs Besëlidhja Lezhë?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.21.

Who will win Pogradeci vs Besëlidhja Lezhë?

On our numbers Pogradeci have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Besëlidhja Lezhë 14%.

How many goals will there be in Pogradeci vs Besëlidhja Lezhë?

We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.

When is Pogradeci vs Besëlidhja Lezhë?

Pogradeci vs Besëlidhja Lezhë (1st Division) kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time).

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.