Serie D Girone G · Italy · Stadio Marcello TorrePaganese vs Afragolese prediction & analysis
Paganese or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Paganese 1.6 – 0.9 Afragolese expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Paganese hold the edge on home soil with a 56% chance of winning, against 20% for Afragolese.
Paganese have taken 12 points from their last 6 matches (4W 0D 2L), scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.7 per game. Afragolese have 4 points from their last 6 (0W 4D 2L), averaging 0.5 scored and 1.8 conceded. Paganese come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.5 goals (1.6 for Paganese, 0.9 for Afragolese). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 47%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (13%), 1–1 (12%), 2–0 (11%).
Our pick is Paganese or draw at a 80% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is close to our fair price of 1.24.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Paganese to win ✗ | 56% | 1.80 | 1.90 ▲ |
| Double chance | Paganese or draw ✓ | 80% | 1.24 | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 53% | 1.88 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 71% | 1.40 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 54% | 1.85 | 1.75 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 76% | 1.32 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 43% | 2.33 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Paganese / FT Paganese ✗ | 34% | 2.93 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 13% | 7.48 | – |
Form
Paganese – last 6
| 12 Sep | @ Latte Dolce | 3–2 | W |
| 6 Sep | vs Unipomezia | 2–1 | W |
| 17 May | @ Martina Franca | 1–0 | W |
| 3 May | @ Città di Fasano | 0–6 | L |
| 26 Apr | vs Nola 1925 | 5–0 | W |
| 19 Apr | @ Gravina | 0–1 | L |
Afragolese – last 6
| 12 Sep | vs Sarnese | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | @ Gelbison | 0–0 | D |
| 3 May | @ Francavilla | 0–2 | L |
| 26 Apr | vs Gravina | 0–6 | L |
| 19 Apr | vs Real Normanna | 0–0 | D |
| 2 Apr | vs Virtus Francavilla | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Paganese and Afragolese.
Serie D Girone G table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sarnese | 11 | +11 | 26 |
| 2 |  Trastevere | 10 | -1 | 18 |
| 3 |  Albalonga | 11 | +4 | 17 |
| 4 |  Monastir | 11 | +3 | 17 |
| 5 |  Certosa V. Campagnano | 11 | +3 | 17 |
| 6 |  Unipomezia | 11 | +4 | 16 |
| 7 |  Anzio | 10 | +4 | 16 |
| 8 |  Afragolese | 11 | +5 | 15 |
| 9 |  Aranova | 11 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Paganese | 11 | +4 | 14 |
| 11 |  Ossese | 11 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 |  Città di Anagni | 11 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 |  Budoni | 11 | -5 | 14 |
| 14 |  Venafro | 11 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 |  Sarrabus Ogliastra | 11 | -1 | 12 |
| 16 |  Gelbison | 11 | -8 | 11 |
| 17 |  Latte Dolce | 11 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 |  Atletico Lodigiani | 11 | -11 | 6 |
More Serie D Girone G predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Paganese vs Afragolese?
Our pick is Paganese or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Paganese vs Afragolese?
On our numbers Paganese have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Afragolese 20%.
How many goals will there be in Paganese vs Afragolese?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
When is Paganese vs Afragolese?
Paganese vs Afragolese (Serie D Girone G) kicks off on Wednesday 16 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Marcello Torre.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.