Serie D Girone D · ItalyCoriano vs Pontedera prediction & analysis
Coriano or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.28 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Coriano to win @ 1.91 – our chance 60% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Coriano 1.7 – 0.8 Pontedera expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Coriano are clear favourites at home with a 60% chance of winning, against 18% for Pontedera.
Coriano have taken 5 points from their last 6 matches (1W 2D 3L), scoring 0.5 and conceding 1.0 per game. Pontedera have 0 points from their last 6 (0W 0D 6L), averaging 0.5 scored and 2.8 conceded. Coriano come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.5 goals (1.7 for Coriano, 0.8 for Pontedera). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 45%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (14%), 2–0 (12%), 1–1 (11%).
Our pick is Coriano or draw at a 82% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.28 is better than our fair price of 1.22, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Coriano to win at 1.91 is our value angle (60% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Coriano to win ✗ | 60% | 1.66 | 1.91 ▲ |
| Double chance | Coriano or draw ✗ | 82% | 1.22 | 1.28 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 55% | 1.81 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 71% | 1.41 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 54% | 1.84 | 1.75 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 76% | 1.31 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 43% | 2.34 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Coriano / FT Coriano ✗ | 36% | 2.74 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 14% | 7.07 | – |
Form
Coriano – last 6
| 11 Oct | vs Crema | 0–0 | D |
| 20 Sep | @ Oltrepò | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Sep | vs Lentigione | 1–2 | L |
| 13 Sep | @ Cittadella Vis Modena | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Città di Varese | 1–1 | D |
| 10 May | @ Crema | 0–2 | L |
Pontedera – last 6
| 11 Oct | @ Lentigione | 0–2 | L |
| 4 Oct | vs Cittadella Vis Modena | 0–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Città di Varese | 0–3 | L |
| 16 Sep | @ Pro Sesto | 0–3 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Pro Patria | 2–3 | L |
| 6 Sep | @ Castellanzese | 1–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Coriano and Pontedera.
Serie D Girone D table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Pistoiese | 11 | +19 | 28 |
| 2 |  Lentigione | 11 | +8 | 24 |
| 3 |  Pro Patria | 11 | +7 | 21 |
| 4 |  Castellanzese | 11 | +8 | 19 |
| 5 |  USD Casatese | 11 | +1 | 19 |
| 6 |  Pro Sesto | 11 | +12 | 18 |
| 7 |  Cittadella Vis Modena | 11 | +3 | 17 |
| 8 |  Solbiatese | 11 | +2 | 17 |
| 9 |  Sant'Angelo | 11 | 0 | 15 |
| 10 |  Crema | 11 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 |  Città di Varese | 11 | +4 | 14 |
| 12 |  Pavia | 11 | +3 | 14 |
| 13 |  Correggese | 11 | -7 | 12 |
| 14 |  Varesina | 11 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 |  Coriano | 11 | -5 | 9 |
| 16 |  Pontedera | 11 | -16 | 7 |
| 17 |  Arconatese | 11 | -15 | 6 |
| 18 |  Oltrepò | 11 | -19 | 5 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Coriano vs Pontedera?
Our pick is Coriano or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Coriano vs Pontedera?
On our numbers Coriano have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Pontedera 18%.
How many goals will there be in Coriano vs Pontedera?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
When is Coriano vs Pontedera?
Coriano vs Pontedera (Serie D Girone D) kicks off on Wednesday 14 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.