Copa Do Brasil · Brazil
Cruzeiro vs Atletico-MG prediction & analysis
Cruzeiro or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.14 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
Value bet: Cruzeiro to win @ 1.95 – our chance 63% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +24%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Cruzeiro 1.6 – 0.5 Atletico-MG expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Cruzeiro are clear favourites at home with a 63% chance of winning, against 12% for Atletico-MG.
Cruzeiro have taken 13 points from their last 6 matches (4W 1D 1L), scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.0 per game. Atletico-MG have 12 points from their last 6 (3W 3D 0L), averaging 1.5 scored and 0.7 conceded.
We expect around 2.1 goals (1.6 for Cruzeiro, 0.5 for Atletico-MG). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 61% likely. Most likely scores: 1–0 (19%), 2–0 (15%), 0–0 (12%).
In their last 1 meeting, Cruzeiro have won 0, Atletico-MG have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 4.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Cruzeiro or draw at a 88% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is better than our fair price of 1.14, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Cruzeiro to win at 1.95 is our value angle (63% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Cruzeiro to win ✗ | 63% | 1.58 | 1.95 ▲ |
| Double chance | Cruzeiro or draw ✓ | 88% | 1.14 | 1.22 ▲ |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 52% | 1.94 | 1.80 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 65% | 1.54 | 1.40 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 61% | 1.65 | 1.65 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 80% | 1.24 | 1.22 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 46% | 2.18 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Cruzeiro / FT Cruzeiro ✗ | 39% | 2.55 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 19% | 5.29 | – |
Form
Cruzeiro – last 6
| 23 Aug | vs Flamengo | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Aug | @ Flamengo | 1–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | @ Corinthians | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Aug | vs Flamengo | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Aug | vs Mirassol | 3–1 | W |
| 5 Aug | vs Chapecoense-sc | 2–0 | W |
Atletico-MG – last 6
| 22 Aug | @ Internacional | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Aug | vs RB Bragantino | 2–2 | D |
| 16 Aug | vs Gremio | 3–0 | W |
| 12 Aug | @ RB Bragantino | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Aug | @ Remo | 2–2 | D |
| 4 Aug | @ Juventude | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
| 3 May 2026 | Cruzeiro v Atletico-MG | 1–3 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Cruzeiro vs Atletico-MG?
Our pick is Cruzeiro or draw with a 88% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Cruzeiro vs Atletico-MG?
On our numbers Cruzeiro have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Atletico-MG 12%.
How many goals will there be in Cruzeiro vs Atletico-MG?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
When is Cruzeiro vs Atletico-MG?
Cruzeiro vs Atletico-MG (Copa Do Brasil) kicks off on Wednesday 26 August 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.