Coventry City U21 vs Barnsley U21 prediction & analysis

Very little separates Coventry City U21 and Barnsley U21 on our numbers – 38% for the home side, 41% for the visitors and 21% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.

Coventry City U21 have taken 3 points from their last 6 matches (1W 0D 5L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 2.3 per game. Barnsley U21 have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 2.3 scored and 2.5 conceded. Barnsley U21 come into this in clearly the better form.

We expect around 4.2 goals (2.1 for Coventry City U21, 2.1 for Barnsley U21). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 79% likely and both teams score 71% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 2–2 (7%), 1–2 (7%), 2–1 (7%).

In their last 1 meeting, Coventry City U21 have won 0, Barnsley U21 have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.

Our pick is Both teams to score at a 71% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.35 is close to our fair price of 1.41. For a bigger price, Barnsley U21 to win at 2.62 is our value angle (41% on our numbers).