Tercera División RFEF Group 16 · Spain

Varea

LLWWW
2–0
FT

Anguiano

WWWWL

Varea vs Anguiano prediction & analysis

78%
Footrivo pick

Under 3.5 goals

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.21 · Won ✓

9/10Rating
1.21Odds
2

Value bet: Anguiano to win @ 2.93 – our chance 38% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Quick tips for this match

ResultAnguiano to win ✗38% · @2.93
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.27
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓50% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.33

Win chances

Varea38%fair 2.65 · @2.22
Draw24%fair 4.10 · @3.02
Anguiano38%fair 2.64 · @2.93
2.23Expected goals
1.11Varea xG
1.11Anguiano xG
50%Both score
41%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–113%
0–112%
1–012%
0–011%
1–27%
2–17%

From our goals model: Varea 1.1 – 1.1 Anguiano expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Very little separates Varea and Anguiano on our numbers – 38% for the home side, 38% for the visitors and 24% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.

Varea have taken 9 points from their last 6 matches (3W 0D 3L), scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.0 per game. Anguiano have 12 points from their last 6 (4W 0D 2L), averaging 2.2 scored and 0.8 conceded.

We expect around 2.2 goals (1.1 for Varea, 1.1 for Anguiano). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 50%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 0–1 (12%), 1–0 (12%).

In their last 1 meeting, Varea have won 0, Anguiano have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 0.0 goals per game.

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 78% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.21 is close to our fair price of 1.28. For a bigger price, Anguiano to win at 2.93 is our value angle (38% on our numbers).

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultAnguiano to win ✗38%2.642.93 ▲
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76%1.321.27
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score ✓50%1.991.83
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓67%1.501.33
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓59%1.711.65
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78%1.281.21
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓47%2.12–
Half-time / full-timeHT Anguiano / FT Anguiano ✗20%5.01–
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12%8.33–

Form

Varea – last 6

LLWWWL
1 Nov@ Haro Deportivo1–2L
29 Octvs FC Andorra0–3L
25 Octvs Alfaro1–0W
18 Oct@ Calasancio1–0W
11 Octvs Agoncillo1–0W
4 Oct@ Oyonesa0–1L
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Anguiano – last 6

WWWWLL
1 Novvs Vianés3–0W
25 Oct@ Casalarreina2–1W
18 Octvs Calahorra3–0W
10 Octvs Yagüe3–0W
4 Oct@ Haro Deportivo1–2L
27 Sepvs Alfaro1–2L
2.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5

Head to head

26 Apr 2026Varea v Anguiano0–0

More Tercera División RFEF Group 16 predictions

FT Berceo1 Alfaro3 322246 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 75%@1.24 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Varea vs Anguiano?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.21.

Who will win Varea vs Anguiano?

On our numbers Varea have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Anguiano 38%.

How many goals will there be in Varea vs Anguiano?

We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.

When is Varea vs Anguiano?

Varea vs Anguiano (Tercera División RFEF Group 16) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.