Tercera División RFEF Group 16 · SpainCenicero vs San Marcial prediction & analysis
Under 2.5 goals
Fair pick · fair odds 1.86 · bookmaker 1.90 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Cenicero 1.3 – 1.1 San Marcial expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Cenicero hold the edge on home soil with a 44% chance of winning, against 35% for San Marcial.
Cenicero have taken 5 points from their last 5 matches (1W 2D 2L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.4 per game. San Marcial have 9 points from their last 6 (2W 3D 1L), averaging 1.0 scored and 0.7 conceded.
We expect around 2.4 goals (1.3 for Cenicero, 1.1 for San Marcial). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 47%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 1–0 (12%), 0–1 (10%).
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals at a 54% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.90 is close to our fair price of 1.86.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Cenicero to win ✗ | 44% | 2.26 | 2.10 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 79% | 1.26 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 53% | 1.87 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 69% | 1.45 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 54% | 1.86 | 1.90 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 78% | 1.28 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 45% | 2.21 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Cenicero / FT Cenicero ✗ | 24% | 4.25 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 12% | 8.44 | – |
Form
Cenicero – last 5
| 3 Oct | @ Yagüe | 1–2 | L |
| 26 Sep | @ River Ebro | 2–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Berceo | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Sep | @ Comillas | 0–0 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs Varea | 1–1 | D |
San Marcial – last 6
| 4 Oct | vs River Ebro | 1–1 | D |
| 27 Sep | @ Berceo | 1–2 | L |
| 18 Sep | vs Comillas | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sep | @ Varea | 0–0 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs Vianés | 1–0 | W |
| 2 Apr | @ Comillas | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cenicero and San Marcial.
Tercera División RFEF Group 16 table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Haro Deportivo | 10 | +10 | 25 |
| 2 |  La Calzada | 10 | +5 | 24 |
| 3 |  Alfaro | 10 | +6 | 22 |
| 4 |  Calahorra | 10 | +18 | 21 |
| 5 |  Varea | 10 | +5 | 19 |
| 6 |  Berceo | 10 | +8 | 18 |
| 7 |  Anguiano | 10 | +7 | 17 |
| 8 |  Agoncillo | 10 | +6 | 16 |
| 9 |  San Marcial | 10 | +5 | 16 |
| 10 |  Oyonesa | 10 | +3 | 15 |
| 11 |  Pradejón | 10 | -3 | 13 |
| 12 |  Yagüe | 10 | -9 | 12 |
| 13 |  Calasancio | 10 | -7 | 11 |
| 14 |  River Ebro | 10 | -12 | 7 |
| 15 |  Comillas | 10 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 |  Cenicero | 10 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 |  Vianés | 10 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 |  Casalarreina | 10 | -18 | 3 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Cenicero vs San Marcial?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.90.
Who will win Cenicero vs San Marcial?
On our numbers Cenicero have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 21% and San Marcial 35%.
How many goals will there be in Cenicero vs San Marcial?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
When is Cenicero vs San Marcial?
Cenicero vs San Marcial (Tercera División RFEF Group 16) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.