Tercera División RFEF Group 14 · Spain
Santa Amalia
Guadiana
Santa Amalia vs Guadiana prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.62 · bookmaker 1.58 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 55% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Santa Amalia 2.1 – 0.9 Guadiana expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Santa Amalia are clear favourites at home with a 64% chance of winning, against 14% for Guadiana.
Santa Amalia have taken 4 points from their last 6 matches (0W 4D 2L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.7 per game. Guadiana have 1 points from their last 6 (0W 1D 5L), averaging 0.3 scored and 3.2 conceded.
We expect around 2.9 goals (2.1 for Santa Amalia, 0.9 for Guadiana). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–0 (11%), 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (10%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 62% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.58 is close to our fair price of 1.62. For a bigger price, Both teams to score at 1.95 is our value angle (55% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Santa Amalia to win ✓ | 64% | 1.57 | 1.31 |
| Double chance | Santa Amalia or draw ✓ | 86% | 1.17 | 1.05 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 55% | 1.83 | 1.95 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 80% | 1.25 | 1.12 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 59% | 1.69 | 1.48 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 62% | 1.62 | 1.58 |
| Half-time result | Santa Amalia ahead at half-time ✗ | 47% | 2.14 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Santa Amalia / FT Santa Amalia ✗ | 42% | 2.40 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–0 ✗ | 11% | 8.92 | – |
Form
Santa Amalia – last 6
| 1 Nov | @ Azuaga | 0–0 | D |
| 25 Oct | vs Cabeza Buey | 3–3 | D |
| 21 Oct | @ Llerenense | 0–3 | L |
| 18 Oct | @ Montijo | 0–0 | D |
| 9 Oct | vs Villafranca | 1–3 | L |
| 27 Sep | vs Moralo | 1–1 | D |
Guadiana – last 6
| 1 Nov | vs CD Zafra | 0–4 | L |
| 25 Oct | @ Jaraíz | 0–4 | L |
| 18 Oct | vs Villanovense | 0–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Jerez | 1–4 | L |
| 4 Oct | @ Azuaga | 0–4 | L |
| 27 Sep | vs Cabeza Buey | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Santa Amalia and Guadiana.
More Tercera División RFEF Group 14 predictions
Gévora1
Azuaga1
O1.5Over 1.5 goals
73%@1.31
✓
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Santa Amalia vs Guadiana?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.58.
Who will win Santa Amalia vs Guadiana?
On our numbers Santa Amalia have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Guadiana 14%.
How many goals will there be in Santa Amalia vs Guadiana?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
When is Santa Amalia vs Guadiana?
Santa Amalia vs Guadiana (Tercera División RFEF Group 14) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.