Tercera División RFEF Group 13 · SpainSantomera vs Algar prediction & analysis
Santomera to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.40 · Won ✓
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 53% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Santomera 2.2 – 0.8 Algar expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Santomera are clear favourites at home with a 65% chance of winning, against 11% for Algar.
Santomera have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.8 per game. Algar have 0 points from their last 2 (0W 0D 2L), averaging 0.0 scored and 2.5 conceded. Santomera come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.0 goals (2.2 for Santomera, 0.8 for Algar). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 2–0 (12%), 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (10%).
Our pick is Santomera to win at a 65% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.40 is close to our fair price of 1.53. For a bigger price, Both teams to score at 2.00 is our value angle (53% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Santomera to win ✓ | 65% | 1.53 | 1.40 |
| Double chance | Santomera or draw ✓ | 89% | 1.12 | 1.08 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 53% | 1.88 | 2.00 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 80% | 1.25 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 58% | 1.73 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 65% | 1.55 | – |
| Half-time result | Santomera ahead at half-time ✗ | 49% | 2.04 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Santomera / FT Santomera ✗ | 44% | 2.25 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–0 ✓ | 12% | 8.58 | – |
Form
Santomera – last 6
| 13 Sep | @ Los Garres | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sep | vs UCAM Murcia II | 2–1 | W |
| 28 Aug | vs Torrellano | 3–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | vs Cieza | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Apr | @ SFC Minerva | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Mar | vs UCAM Murcia II | 2–4 | L |
Algar – last 2
| 13 Sep | vs Bullas Deportivo | 0–3 | L |
| 5 Sep | @ Atlético Pulpileño | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Santomera and Algar.
Tercera División RFEF Group 13 table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Santomera | 9 | +15 | 25 |
| 2 |  Santa Cruz | 9 | +6 | 18 |
| 3 |  Águilas II | 9 | +8 | 17 |
| 4 |  San Javier | 9 | +2 | 16 |
| 5 |  UCAM Murcia II | 9 | +8 | 15 |
| 6 |  Unión Molinense | 9 | +5 | 15 |
| 7 |  Los Garres | 9 | +3 | 14 |
| 8 |  Bala Azul | 9 | +2 | 13 |
| 9 |  Balsicas Atlético | 9 | -3 | 13 |
| 10 |  Alcantarilla | 9 | +3 | 12 |
| 11 |  Olímpico Totana | 9 | -1 | 11 |
| 12 |  Atlético Pulpileño | 9 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 |  Cotillas CD | 9 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 |  Cartagena LU II | 9 | -3 | 9 |
| 15 |  SFC Minerva | 9 | -7 | 8 |
| 16 |  Algar | 9 | -17 | 6 |
| 17 |  Bullas Deportivo | 9 | -11 | 5 |
| 18 |  Mazarrón FC | 9 | -6 | 4 |
More Tercera División RFEF Group 13 predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Santomera vs Algar?
Our pick is Santomera to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Santomera vs Algar?
On our numbers Santomera have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Algar 11%.
How many goals will there be in Santomera vs Algar?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
When is Santomera vs Algar?
Santomera vs Algar (Tercera División RFEF Group 13) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.