WSL Cup · England · Keys Park
Aston Villa W vs Birmingham City W prediction & analysis
Aston Villa W or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
Value bet: Aston Villa W to win @ 1.70 – our chance 62% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Aston Villa W 2.4 – 1.2 Birmingham City W expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Aston Villa W are clear favourites at home with a 62% chance of winning, against 17% for Birmingham City W.
Aston Villa W have taken 13 points from their last 6 matches (4W 1D 1L), scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.5 per game. Birmingham City W have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 2.3 scored and 1.7 conceded. Aston Villa W come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.7 goals (2.4 for Aston Villa W, 1.2 for Birmingham City W). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–1 (9%), 1–1 (8%), 3–1 (8%).
Our pick is Aston Villa W or draw at a 83% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is close to our fair price of 1.20. For a bigger price, Aston Villa W to win at 1.70 is our value angle (62% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Aston Villa W to win ✗ | 62% | 1.60 | 1.70 ▲ |
| Double chance | Aston Villa W or draw ✓ | 83% | 1.20 | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 65% | 1.53 | 1.44 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 88% | 1.14 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 71% | 1.41 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 50% | 2.00 | – |
| Half-time result | Aston Villa W ahead at half-time ✗ | 48% | 2.08 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Aston Villa W / FT Aston Villa W ✗ | 42% | 2.38 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 9% | 10.72 | – |
Form
Aston Villa W – last 6
| 25 Oct | @ Everton W | 3–2 | W |
| 21 Oct | @ Burnley W | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs Liverpool W | 2–1 | W |
| 4 Oct | vs Crystal Palace W | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Sep | vs Newcastle United W | 3–1 | W |
| 27 Sep | @ Tottenham Hotspur W | 0–4 | L |
Birmingham City W – last 6
| 25 Oct | vs Charlton Athletic W | 1–0 | W |
| 21 Oct | @ Durham W | 5–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | @ Arsenal W | 1–1 | D |
| 4 Oct | @ Everton W | 1–2 | L |
| 30 Sep | vs Liverpool W | 3–4 | L |
| 27 Sep | vs Crystal Palace W | 3–3 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Aston Villa W and Birmingham City W.
More WSL Cup predictions
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Tottenham Hotspur W6
London City Lionesses W4
Crystal Palace W2
Manchester United W3
Burnley W0
Sheffield United W1
Everton W2
Charlton Athletic W1
West Ham W2Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Aston Villa W vs Birmingham City W?
Our pick is Aston Villa W or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Aston Villa W vs Birmingham City W?
On our numbers Aston Villa W have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Birmingham City W 17%.
How many goals will there be in Aston Villa W vs Birmingham City W?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
When is Aston Villa W vs Birmingham City W?
Aston Villa W vs Birmingham City W (WSL Cup) kicks off on Wednesday 28 October 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Keys Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.