Ligue 1 · Algeria · Amar Hamam StadiumKhenchela vs USM Alger prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.45 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 55% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Khenchela 1.3 – 1.0 USM Alger expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Khenchela hold the edge on home soil with a 46% chance of winning, against 31% for USM Alger.
Khenchela have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.7 per game. USM Alger have 6 points from their last 6 (1W 3D 2L), averaging 1.7 scored and 1.7 conceded. Khenchela come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.2 goals (1.3 for Khenchela, 1.0 for USM Alger). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 55%. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 1–0 (13%), 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (11%).
In their last 1 meeting, Khenchela have won 1, USM Alger have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 65% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.45 is close to our fair price of 1.54. For a bigger price, Both teams to score at 1.95 is our value angle (55% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Khenchela to win ✗ | 46% | 2.19 | 2.25 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 77% | 1.30 | 1.30 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 55% | 1.81 | 1.95 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 65% | 1.54 | 1.45 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 61% | 1.64 | 1.53 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 80% | 1.25 | 1.17 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 47% | 2.14 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Khenchela / FT Khenchela ✗ | 25% | 4.01 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 13% | 7.43 | – |
Form
Khenchela – last 6
| 5 Jun | vs MB Rouisset | 1–0 | W |
| 25 May | vs USM Alger | 2–1 | W |
| 19 May | @ CS Constantine | 2–2 | D |
| 8 May | vs El Bayadh | 2–1 | W |
| 4 May | @ CR Belouizdad | 1–3 | L |
| 17 Apr | @ JS Saoura | 0–3 | L |
USM Alger – last 6
| 6 Jun | @ MC Oran | 2–2 | D |
| 4 Jun | @ Ben Aknoun | 2–2 | D |
| 2 Jun | vs CR Belouizdad | 1–1 | D |
| 30 May | @ MB Rouisset | 0–1 | L |
| 25 May | @ Khenchela | 1–2 | L |
| 22 May | vs Paradou AC | 4–2 | W |
Head to head
| 25 May 2026 | Khenchela v USM Alger | 2–1 |
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CR Belouizdad | 8 | +6 | 20 |
| 2 |  JS Kabylie | 8 | +8 | 17 |
| 3 |  MC Alger | 7 | +7 | 16 |
| 4 |  MB Rouisset | 9 | +3 | 15 |
| 5 |  MC Oran | 8 | +3 | 15 |
| 6 |  USM Alger | 7 | +5 | 14 |
| 7 |  Olympique Akbou | 8 | +3 | 12 |
| 8 |  JS El Biar | 9 | +1 | 11 |
| 9 |  Témouchent | 9 | -3 | 10 |
| 10 |  ES Setif | 8 | +2 | 9 |
| 11 |  Ben Aknoun | 8 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 |  CS Constantine | 9 | -7 | 7 |
| 13 |  Khenchela | 8 | -5 | 6 |
| 14 |  JS Saoura | 8 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 |  ASO Chlef | 9 | -6 | 5 |
| 16 |  US Biskra | 9 | -10 | 4 |
More Ligue 1 predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Khenchela vs USM Alger?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Khenchela vs USM Alger?
On our numbers Khenchela have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 23% and USM Alger 31%.
How many goals will there be in Khenchela vs USM Alger?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
When is Khenchela vs USM Alger?
Khenchela vs USM Alger (Ligue 1) kicks off on Friday 4 September 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Amar Hamam Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.