Serie C Girone A · Italy · Stadio Sandro CabassiAthletic Carpi vs Lumezzane prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.65 · bookmaker 1.75 · Won ✓
Value bet: Lumezzane to win @ 2.90 – our chance 39% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Athletic Carpi 1.4 – 1.4 Lumezzane expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Athletic Carpi and Lumezzane on our numbers – 37% for the home side, 39% for the visitors and 24% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Athletic Carpi have taken 2 points from their last 6 matches (0W 2D 4L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.2 per game. Lumezzane have 9 points from their last 6 (2W 3D 1L), averaging 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded. Lumezzane come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.8 goals (1.4 for Athletic Carpi, 1.4 for Lumezzane). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 61%. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 1–2 (8%), 0–1 (8%).
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 61% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.75 is better than our fair price of 1.65, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Lumezzane to win at 2.90 is our value angle (39% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Lumezzane to win ✗ | 39% | 2.56 | 2.90 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 76% | 1.32 | 1.30 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 61% | 1.65 | 1.75 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 77% | 1.29 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 54% | 1.86 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 69% | 1.46 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 41% | 2.43 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Lumezzane / FT Lumezzane ✗ | 23% | 4.44 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–2 ✗ | 8% | 11.77 | – |
Form
Athletic Carpi – last 6
| 10 Oct | @ Pergolettese | 1–2 | L |
| 3 Oct | @ PRO Vercelli | 0–2 | L |
| 27 Sep | vs Arzignano Valchiampo | 0–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | @ Novara | 2–2 | D |
| 17 Sep | vs Ospitaletto | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sep | vs Cittadella | 1–2 | L |
Lumezzane – last 6
| 13 Oct | @ Juventus U23 | 0–0 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Albinoleffe | 3–2 | W |
| 26 Sep | vs Folgore Caratese | 1–2 | L |
| 21 Sep | @ Dolomiti Bellunesi | 2–1 | W |
| 17 Sep | vs Novara | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sep | vs Renate | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Athletic Carpi and Lumezzane.
Serie C Girone A table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Cittadella | 13 | +13 | 31 |
| 2 |  Union Brescia | 13 | +15 | 28 |
| 3 |  Trento | 13 | +12 | 27 |
| 4 |  Ospitaletto | 13 | +8 | 22 |
| 5 |  Treviso | 13 | +5 | 22 |
| 6 |  Arzignano Valchiampo | 13 | +4 | 21 |
| 7 |  Lecco | 13 | +11 | 20 |
| 8 |  Alcione | 13 | +2 | 18 |
| 9 |  Albinoleffe | 13 | +1 | 17 |
| 10 |  Pergolettese | 13 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 |  Lumezzane | 13 | -3 | 16 |
| 12 |  PRO Vercelli | 13 | -7 | 16 |
| 13 |  Desenzano Calvina | 13 | -5 | 13 |
| 14 |  Novara | 13 | -7 | 13 |
| 15 |  Athletic Carpi | 13 | -10 | 13 |
| 16 |  Giana Erminio | 13 | -4 | 12 |
| 17 |  Renate | 13 | -1 | 11 |
| 18 |  Juventus U23 | 13 | -11 | 11 |
| 19 |  Dolomiti Bellunesi | 13 | -12 | 10 |
| 20 |  Folgore Caratese | 13 | -10 | 8 |
More Serie C Girone A predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Athletic Carpi vs Lumezzane?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Athletic Carpi vs Lumezzane?
On our numbers Athletic Carpi have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Lumezzane 39%.
How many goals will there be in Athletic Carpi vs Lumezzane?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
When is Athletic Carpi vs Lumezzane?
Athletic Carpi vs Lumezzane (Serie C Girone A) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Sandro Cabassi.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.