Premyer Liqa · Azerbaidjan · ASK Arena

Safa Baku

DWLLL
2–2
FT

Araz

DWLLL

Safa Baku vs Araz prediction & analysis

77%
Footrivo pick

Over 1.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.30 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓

8/10Rating
1.22Odds

Quick tips for this match

ResultAraz to win ✗41% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗9% · fair 11.34

Win chances

Safa Baku36%fair 2.75 · @2.50
Draw23%fair 4.35 · @3.30
Araz41%fair 2.46 · @2.50
2.80Expected goals
1.35Safa Baku xG
1.45Araz xG
61%Both score
54%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–112%
0–19%
1–29%
1–08%
2–18%
0–26%

From our goals model: Safa Baku 1.4 – 1.4 Araz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Very little separates Safa Baku and Araz on our numbers – 36% for the home side, 41% for the visitors and 23% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.

Safa Baku have taken 4 points from their last 6 matches (1W 1D 4L), scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.7 per game. Araz have 4 points from their last 6 (1W 1D 4L), averaging 1.8 scored and 1.7 conceded.

We expect around 2.8 goals (1.4 for Safa Baku, 1.4 for Araz). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 61%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 0–1 (9%), 1–2 (9%).

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 77% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is close to our fair price of 1.30.

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultAraz to win ✗41%2.462.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77%1.301.25
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓61%1.631.57
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77%1.301.22
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓54%1.851.70
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗67%1.491.44
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓41%2.42–
Half-time / full-timeHT Araz / FT Araz ✗23%4.32–
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗9%11.34–

Form

Safa Baku – last 6

DWLLLL
2 Nov@ Sumqayıt1–1D
28 Octvs Ağstafa Gəncləri9–2W
24 Octvs Kapaz1–2L
16 Oct@ Şamaxı FK2–3L
11 Octvs Turan0–1L
18 Sep@ Qarabag0–1L
2.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Araz – last 6

DWLLLL
31 Octvs Zira2–2D
27 Oct@ Şimal6–0W
23 Octvs Qabala1–2L
16 Oct@ Sumqayıt1–2L
9 Octvs Kapaz0–2L
20 Sep@ Şamaxı FK1–2L
1.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Safa Baku and Araz.

More Premyer Liqa predictions

FT Zira2 Qabala1 612217 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 73%@1.33 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Safa Baku vs Araz?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.

Who will win Safa Baku vs Araz?

On our numbers Safa Baku have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Araz 41%.

How many goals will there be in Safa Baku vs Araz?

We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.

When is Safa Baku vs Araz?

Safa Baku vs Araz (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at ASK Arena.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.