Segunda División · ChileColchagua vs Municipal Salamanca prediction & analysis
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.53 · Won ✓
Value bet: Municipal Salamanca to win @ 3.20 – our chance 39% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +25%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Colchagua 1.0 – 1.0 Municipal Salamanca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Colchagua and Municipal Salamanca on our numbers – 36% for the home side, 39% for the visitors and 25% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Colchagua have taken 5 points from their last 6 matches (1W 2D 3L), scoring 0.2 and conceding 1.2 per game. Municipal Salamanca have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 0.8 scored and 0.7 conceded. Municipal Salamanca come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.0 goals (1.0 for Colchagua, 1.0 for Municipal Salamanca). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 65% likely. Most likely scores: 0–1 (14%), 0–0 (14%), 1–1 (14%).
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals at a 65% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.53 is close to our fair price of 1.54. For a bigger price, Municipal Salamanca to win at 3.20 is our value angle (39% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Municipal Salamanca to win ✓ | 39% | 2.57 | 3.20 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 75% | 1.34 | 1.28 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 54% | 1.87 | 1.95 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 61% | 1.63 | 1.45 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 65% | 1.54 | 1.53 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 83% | 1.21 | 1.17 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 50% | 1.98 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Draw / FT Draw ✗ | 22% | 4.49 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✓ | 14% | 7.03 | – |
Form
Colchagua – last 6
| 22 Aug | @ Trasandino | 0–0 | D |
| 9 Aug | vs Santiago City | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Jul | @ Linares Unido | 0–4 | L |
| 5 Jul | vs Lota Schwager | 0–2 | L |
| 27 Jun | @ Deportes Rengo | 1–0 | W |
| 21 Jun | vs Provincial Osorno | 0–0 | D |
Municipal Salamanca – last 6
| 22 Aug | vs Concón National | 0–2 | L |
| 11 Jul | @ Trasandino | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Jul | vs Concón National | 1–0 | W |
| 28 Jun | vs Real San Joaquín | 0–0 | D |
| 21 Jun | @ Colina | 2–1 | W |
| 31 May | vs Santiago City | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Colchagua and Municipal Salamanca.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Provincial Osorno | 12 | +10 | 24 |
| 2 |  Municipal Salamanca | 12 | +6 | 22 |
| 3 |  Colchagua | 12 | +4 | 22 |
| 4 |  Concón National | 12 | +6 | 21 |
| 5 |  Santiago City | 12 | -1 | 20 |
| 6 |  Linares Unido | 12 | +4 | 19 |
| 7 |  Trasandino | 12 | +2 | 18 |
| 8 |  General Velásquez | 12 | -4 | 16 |
| 9 |  Real San Joaquín | 12 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 |  Lota Schwager | 12 | -2 | 13 |
| 11 |  Colina | 12 | +1 | 12 |
| 12 |  Deportes Rengo | 12 | -7 | 11 |
| 13 |  Santiago Morning | 12 | -5 | 10 |
| 14 |  Provincial Ovalle | 12 | -13 | 6 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Colchagua vs Municipal Salamanca?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Colchagua vs Municipal Salamanca?
On our numbers Colchagua have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Municipal Salamanca 39%.
How many goals will there be in Colchagua vs Municipal Salamanca?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
When is Colchagua vs Municipal Salamanca?
Colchagua vs Municipal Salamanca (Segunda División) kicks off on Tuesday 1 September 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.