Segunda División · ChileProvincial Osorno vs Concón National prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
Value bet: Provincial Osorno to win @ 1.85 – our chance 62% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Provincial Osorno 1.6 – 0.6 Concón National expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Provincial Osorno are clear favourites at home with a 62% chance of winning, against 15% for Concón National.
Provincial Osorno have taken 7 points from their last 5 matches (1W 4D 0L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 0.6 per game. Concón National have 13 points from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), averaging 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded. Concón National come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.2 goals (1.6 for Provincial Osorno, 0.6 for Concón National). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 59% likely. Most likely scores: 1–0 (18%), 2–0 (14%), 0–0 (11%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 78% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is close to our fair price of 1.28. For a bigger price, Provincial Osorno to win at 1.85 is our value angle (62% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Provincial Osorno to win ✓ | 62% | 1.61 | 1.85 ▲ |
| Double chance | Provincial Osorno or draw ✓ | 85% | 1.17 | 1.18 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 52% | 1.93 | 1.83 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 67% | 1.50 | 1.35 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 59% | 1.70 | 1.70 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 78% | 1.28 | 1.25 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 46% | 2.19 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Provincial Osorno / FT Provincial Osorno ✓ | 38% | 2.66 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✓ | 18% | 5.59 | – |
Form
Provincial Osorno – last 5
| 12 Jul | @ Lota Schwager | 2–2 | D |
| 4 Jul | vs General Velásquez | 3–0 | W |
| 21 Jun | @ Colchagua | 0–0 | D |
| 6 Jun | vs Linares Unido | 1–1 | D |
| 30 May | @ Santiago Morning | 0–0 | D |
Concón National – last 6
| 11 Jul | vs Santiago City | 4–2 | W |
| 5 Jul | @ Municipal Salamanca | 0–1 | L |
| 27 Jun | vs Colina | 1–1 | D |
| 7 Jun | @ Real San Joaquín | 1–0 | W |
| 30 May | vs Provincial Ovalle | 1–0 | W |
| 26 Apr | @ Colina | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Provincial Osorno and Concón National.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Provincial Osorno | 12 | +10 | 24 |
| 2 |  Municipal Salamanca | 12 | +6 | 22 |
| 3 |  Colchagua | 12 | +4 | 22 |
| 4 |  Concón National | 12 | +6 | 21 |
| 5 |  Santiago City | 12 | -1 | 20 |
| 6 |  Linares Unido | 12 | +4 | 19 |
| 7 |  Trasandino | 12 | +2 | 18 |
| 8 |  General Velásquez | 12 | -4 | 16 |
| 9 |  Real San Joaquín | 12 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 |  Lota Schwager | 12 | -2 | 13 |
| 11 |  Colina | 12 | +1 | 12 |
| 12 |  Deportes Rengo | 12 | -7 | 11 |
| 13 |  Santiago Morning | 12 | -5 | 10 |
| 14 |  Provincial Ovalle | 12 | -13 | 6 |
More Segunda División predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Provincial Osorno vs Concón National?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Provincial Osorno vs Concón National?
On our numbers Provincial Osorno have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Concón National 15%.
How many goals will there be in Provincial Osorno vs Concón National?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
When is Provincial Osorno vs Concón National?
Provincial Osorno vs Concón National (Segunda División) kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.