Segunda División · Chile · Estadio Diaguita
Provincial Ovalle
Santiago Morning
Provincial Ovalle vs Santiago Morning prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.47 · bookmaker 1.35 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Provincial Ovalle 1.3 – 1.1 Santiago Morning expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Provincial Ovalle hold the edge on home soil with a 42% chance of winning, against 34% for Santiago Morning.
Provincial Ovalle have taken 8 points from their last 6 matches (2W 2D 2L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.5 per game. Santiago Morning have 4 points from their last 6 (0W 4D 2L), averaging 0.8 scored and 1.5 conceded. Provincial Ovalle come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.4 goals (1.3 for Provincial Ovalle, 1.1 for Santiago Morning). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 52%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 1–0 (12%), 0–1 (10%).
In their last 1 meeting, Provincial Ovalle have won 0, Santiago Morning have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 0.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 68% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.35 is close to our fair price of 1.47.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Provincial Ovalle to win ✓ | 42% | 2.41 | 2.24 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 76% | 1.32 | 1.26 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 52% | 1.92 | 1.86 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 68% | 1.47 | 1.35 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 57% | 1.75 | 1.60 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 77% | 1.30 | 1.18 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 45% | 2.21 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Provincial Ovalle / FT Provincial Ovalle ✗ | 23% | 4.35 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 12% | 8.62 | – |
Form
Provincial Ovalle – last 6
| 1 Nov | @ Real San Joaquín | 1–1 | D |
| 24 Oct | vs General Velásquez | 1–2 | L |
| 3 Oct | vs Deportes Rengo | 1–5 | L |
| 26 Sep | @ Lota Schwager | 2–1 | W |
| 7 Sep | vs Colina | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | @ Santiago Morning | 0–0 | D |
Santiago Morning – last 6
| 31 Oct | vs Lota Schwager | 1–4 | L |
| 25 Oct | @ Colina | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs Real San Joaquín | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs General Velásquez | 0–0 | D |
| 6 Sep | @ Deportes Rengo | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | vs Provincial Ovalle | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
| 30 Aug 2026 | Santiago Morning v Provincial Ovalle | 0–0 |
More Segunda División predictions
Municipal Salamanca2
Colchagua3
U2.5Under 2.5 goals
64%@1.53
✗
FT
Lota Schwager2
Colina1
1Lota Schwager to win
64%@1.83
✓
FT
Trasandino2
Provincial Osorno1
U3.5Under 3.5 goals
74%@1.25
✓
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Provincial Ovalle vs Santiago Morning?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Provincial Ovalle vs Santiago Morning?
On our numbers Provincial Ovalle have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Santiago Morning 34%.
How many goals will there be in Provincial Ovalle vs Santiago Morning?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
When is Provincial Ovalle vs Santiago Morning?
Provincial Ovalle vs Santiago Morning (Segunda División) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Diaguita.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.