Value bet: Stourbridge to win @ 3.00 – our chance 38% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBury Town to win ✓40% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · fair 1.97
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗9% · fair 11.50
Bury Town vs Stourbridge preview and prediction
The match
The Non League Premier Southern Central sees Bury Town take on Stourbridge on Saturday 17 October, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT). Bury Town are 2nd with 35 points from 17 games (in the top four), while Stourbridge sit 11th on 22 points (in the top half). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Bury Town's last 5: LWLDW Most recently they lost to Needham Market 0–5 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Stourbridge's last 5: WWLDW Most recently they beat Worcester City 3–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Stourbridge arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.4 for Bury Town and 1.4 for Stourbridge. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 49%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Bury Town 40%, draw 22%, Stourbridge 38%.
Value angle: Stourbridge to win at 3.00 – 38% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 53% chance at odds of 1.75. Predicted score: Bury Town 2–1 Stourbridge. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Bury Town40%fair 2.53 · @2.00
Draw22%fair 4.50 · @3.50
Stourbridge38%fair 2.62 · @3.00
2.78Expected goals
1.41Bury Town xG
1.38Stourbridge xG
49%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–06%
From our goals model: Bury Town 1.4 – 1.4 Stourbridge expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bury Town to win✓
40%
2.53
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
51%
1.97
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.31
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.88
1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.44
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.41
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bury Town / FT Bury Town✗
22%
4.52
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
9%
11.50
–
Form
Bury Town – last 6
LWLDWL
13 Oct
vs Needham Market
0–5
L
10 Oct
@ Alvechurch
1–0
W
6 Oct
@ Spalding United
0–4
L
3 Oct
vs Spalding United
1–1
D
29 Sep
@ Bishop's Stortford
2–1
W
26 Sep
@ St Albans City
1–4
L
0.8Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Stourbridge – last 6
WWLDWL
13 Oct
@ Worcester City
3–1
W
10 Oct
vs Leighton Town
2–1
W
3 Oct
vs Racing Club Warwick
0–1
L
29 Sep
@ Alvechurch
0–0
D
26 Sep
@ Rushall Olympic
3–1
W
22 Sep
vs Real Bedford
1–4
L
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bury Town and Stourbridge.
What is the prediction for Bury Town vs Stourbridge?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Bury Town vs Stourbridge?
On our numbers Bury Town have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Stourbridge 38%.
How many goals will there be in Bury Town vs Stourbridge?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bury Town vs Stourbridge?
Our predicted score is Bury Town 2–1 Stourbridge, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Bury Town vs Stourbridge?
Bury Town vs Stourbridge (Non League Premier Southern Central) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
