A League · Australia · Coopers Stadium

Adelaide United

LLLLW
2–2
FT

Melbourne Victory

LDLDL

Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory prediction & analysis

64%
Footrivo pick

Under 3.5 goals

Good pick · fair odds 1.57 · bookmaker 1.53 · Lost ✗

6/10Rating
1.53Odds

Quick tips for this match

ResultMelbourne Victory to win ✗46% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✗80% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.50
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.02

Win chances

Adelaide United34%fair 2.94 · @2.90
Draw20%fair 4.89 · @3.60
Melbourne Victory46%fair 2.19 · @2.25
2.93Expected goals
1.33Adelaide United xG
1.59Melbourne Victory xG
62%Both score
57%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–111%
1–29%
0–19%
2–18%
1–07%
0–27%

From our goals model: Adelaide United 1.3 – 1.6 Melbourne Victory expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Melbourne Victory shade it despite being away from home – 46% to win, against 34% for Adelaide United.

Adelaide United have taken 6 points from their last 6 matches (2W 0D 4L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.5 per game. Melbourne Victory have 5 points from their last 6 (1W 2D 3L), averaging 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded.

We expect around 2.9 goals (1.3 for Adelaide United, 1.6 for Melbourne Victory). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11%), 1–2 (9%), 0–1 (9%).

In their last 1 meeting, Adelaide United have won 0, Melbourne Victory have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 64% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.53 is close to our fair price of 1.57.

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultMelbourne Victory to win ✗46%2.192.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✗80%1.261.28
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓62%1.611.50
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80%1.251.17
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓57%1.741.57
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗64%1.571.53
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗40%2.49–
Half-time / full-timeHT Melbourne Victory / FT Melbourne Victory ✗26%3.84–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9%11.02–

Form

Adelaide United – last 6

LLLLWW
5 Nov@ Home United0–5L
1 Nov@ Perth Glory0–4L
29 Octvs Home United0–2L
25 Oct@ Sydney1–2L
15 Oct@ BG Pathum United2–1W
3 Oct@ Perth Glory3–1W
1.0Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5

Melbourne Victory – last 6

LDLDLW
4 Novvs Persib Bandung1–2L
1 Novvs Central Coast Mariners1–1D
28 Oct@ Persib Bandung0–2L
24 Octvs Melbourne City1–1D
18 Oct@ Wellington Phoenix1–2L
14 Octvs FC Seoul3–0W
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

27 Feb 2026Melbourne Victory v Adelaide United1–1

More A League predictions

FT Macarthur1 Brisbane Roar2 412336 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 71%@1.44 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.

Who will win Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory?

On our numbers Adelaide United have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Melbourne Victory 46%.

How many goals will there be in Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory?

We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.

When is Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory?

Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory (A League) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 07:00 (West Africa Time) at Coopers Stadium.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.