Spain vs Argentina prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.33 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
Value bet: Spain to win @ 2.20 – our chance 50% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Spain 1.5 – 1.1 Argentina expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Spain hold the edge on home soil with a 50% chance of winning, against 27% for Argentina.
Spain have taken 18 points from their last 6 matches (6W 0D 0L), scoring 2.2 and conceding 0.2 per game. Argentina have 14 points from their last 6 (4W 2D 0L), averaging 2.0 scored and 1.0 conceded. Spain come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.6 goals (1.5 for Spain, 1.1 for Argentina). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 54%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (9%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 75% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is close to our fair price of 1.33. For a bigger price, Spain to win at 2.20 is our value angle (50% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Spain to win ✗ | 50% | 2.02 | 2.20 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 76% | 1.31 | 1.30 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 54% | 1.86 | 1.90 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 70% | 1.43 | 1.42 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 55% | 1.82 | 1.62 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 75% | 1.33 | 1.22 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 43% | 2.34 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Spain / FT Spain ✗ | 29% | 3.43 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 11% | 8.76 | – |
Form
Spain – last 6
| 14 Jul | @ France | 2–0 | W |
| 10 Jul | vs Belgium | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Jul | @ Portugal | 1–0 | W |
| 2 Jul | vs Austria | 3–0 | W |
| 27 Jun | @ Uruguay | 1–0 | W |
| 21 Jun | vs Saudi Arabia | 4–0 | W |
Argentina – last 6
| 15 Jul | @ England | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Jul | vs Switzerland | 1–1 | D |
| 7 Jul | vs Egypt | 3–2 | W |
| 3 Jul | vs Cape Verde Islands | 1–1 | D |
| 28 Jun | @ Jordan | 3–1 | W |
| 22 Jun | vs Austria | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Spain and Argentina.
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Spain vs Argentina?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Spain vs Argentina?
On our numbers Spain have a 50% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Argentina 27%.
How many goals will there be in Spain vs Argentina?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
When is Spain vs Argentina?
Spain vs Argentina (World Cup) kicks off on Sunday 19 July 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at MetLife Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.