Süper Lig · Turkey · Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs StadyumuSamsunspor vs Göztepe prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.37 · bookmaker 1.30 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Göztepe to win @ 3.05 – our chance 35% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Samsunspor 1.4 – 1.2 Göztepe expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Samsunspor hold the edge on home soil with a 42% chance of winning, against 35% for Göztepe.
Samsunspor have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.5 per game. Göztepe have 13 points from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), averaging 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
We expect around 2.6 goals (1.4 for Samsunspor, 1.2 for Göztepe). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 59%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 1–0 (10%), 0–1 (9%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 73% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.30 is close to our fair price of 1.37. For a bigger price, Göztepe to win at 3.05 is our value angle (35% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Samsunspor to win ✗ | 42% | 2.37 | 2.22 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 77% | 1.30 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 59% | 1.69 | 1.73 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 73% | 1.37 | 1.30 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 52% | 1.94 | 1.83 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 73% | 1.37 | 1.30 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 43% | 2.32 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Samsunspor / FT Samsunspor ✗ | 24% | 4.22 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 10% | 9.82 | – |
Form
Samsunspor – last 6
| 8 Aug | @ Kasımpaşa | 0–3 | L |
| 1 Aug | @ KVC Westerlo | 2–1 | W |
| 29 Jul | @ AEK Athens FC | 2–1 | W |
| 25 Jul | @ RAAL La Louvière | 0–0 | D |
| 22 Jul | @ Dunkerque | 1–2 | L |
| 27 Apr | @ Alanyaspor | 3–2 | W |
Göztepe – last 6
| 8 Aug | vs Trabzonspor | 2–1 | W |
| 26 Jul | vs Rudes | 1–1 | D |
| 23 Jul | @ Zorya Luhansk | 2–1 | W |
| 16 Jul | @ LNZ Cherkasy | 2–0 | W |
| 13 Jul | @ HNK Gorica | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Apr | vs Galatasaray | 1–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Samsunspor and Göztepe.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Galatasaray | 11 | +12 | 28 |
| 2 |  Trabzonspor | 11 | +18 | 25 |
| 3 |  Amed | 11 | +13 | 23 |
| 4 |  Beşiktaş | 11 | +11 | 22 |
| 5 |  Kasımpaşa | 11 | +6 | 20 |
| 6 |  Fenerbahçe | 11 | +19 | 19 |
| 7 |  Kocaelispor | 11 | +4 | 19 |
| 8 |  Başakşehir | 11 | +2 | 17 |
| 9 |  Çorum FK | 11 | 0 | 16 |
| 10 |  Göztepe | 11 | +3 | 15 |
| 11 |  Rizespor | 11 | -3 | 14 |
| 12 |  Erzurumspor FK | 11 | -7 | 14 |
| 13 |  Alanyaspor | 11 | -9 | 12 |
| 14 |  Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 11 | -9 | 11 |
| 15 |  Konyaspor | 11 | -8 | 8 |
| 16 |  Gaziantep FK | 11 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 |  Samsunspor | 11 | -15 | 7 |
| 18 |  Eyüpspor | 11 | -27 | 3 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Samsunspor vs Göztepe?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Samsunspor vs Göztepe?
On our numbers Samsunspor have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Göztepe 35%.
How many goals will there be in Samsunspor vs Göztepe?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
When is Samsunspor vs Göztepe?
Samsunspor vs Göztepe (Süper Lig) kicks off on Monday 17 August 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.