Second League A Fall Season Gold · Russia · Stadion SpartakNovosibirsk vs Kaluga prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.30 · bookmaker 1.24 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Novosibirsk 1.6 – 0.7 Kaluga expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Novosibirsk are clear favourites at home with a 62% chance of winning, against 17% for Kaluga.
Novosibirsk have taken 4 points from their last 6 matches (0W 4D 2L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.7 per game. Kaluga have 9 points from their last 6 (2W 3D 1L), averaging 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded. Kaluga come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.2 goals (1.6 for Novosibirsk, 0.7 for Kaluga). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 50%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (17%), 2–0 (13%), 1–1 (11%).
In their last 3 meetings, Novosibirsk have won 3, Kaluga have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.7 goals per game.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 77% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.24 is close to our fair price of 1.30.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Novosibirsk to win ✓ | 62% | 1.61 | 1.70 ▲ |
| Double chance | Novosibirsk or draw ✓ | 83% | 1.20 | 1.14 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 50% | 1.99 | 1.79 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 68% | 1.47 | 1.29 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 57% | 1.75 | 1.73 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 77% | 1.30 | 1.24 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 45% | 2.22 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Novosibirsk / FT Novosibirsk ✓ | 37% | 2.71 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 17% | 5.93 | – |
Form
Novosibirsk – last 6
| 12 Sep | vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz | 0–0 | D |
| 6 Sep | @ Mashuk-KMV | 1–3 | L |
| 30 Aug | vs Dinamo Kirov | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Aug | @ FK Sokol Saratov | 2–2 | D |
| 16 Aug | vs Volgar Astrakhan | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Aug | @ KDV | 2–2 | D |
Kaluga – last 6
| 13 Sep | vs Dinamo Vladivostok | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Sep | vs FC UFA | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | @ Volgar Astrakhan | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Aug | vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz | 1–1 | D |
| 25 Aug | @ Avangard Kursk | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | vs Dinamo Bryansk | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
| 26 Jul 2026 | Kaluga v Novosibirsk | 0–1 |
| 7 Jun 2026 | Novosibirsk v Kaluga | 1–0 |
| 19 Apr 2026 | Kaluga v Novosibirsk | 1–2 |
Second League A Fall Season Gold table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Dinamo Kirov | 17 | +12 | 34 |
| 2 |  Rodina Moskva II | 17 | +8 | 31 |
| 3 |  Dinamo Vladivostok | 17 | +5 | 24 |
| 4 |  Alaniya Vladikavkaz | 17 | +3 | 23 |
| 5 |  Novosibirsk | 17 | -2 | 22 |
| 6 |  Mashuk-KMV | 17 | +3 | 21 |
| 7 |  FK Sokol Saratov | 17 | -6 | 19 |
| 8 |  Dinamo Bryansk | 17 | -10 | 19 |
| 9 |  Volgar Astrakhan | 17 | -4 | 15 |
| 10 |  Kaluga | 17 | -9 | 11 |
More Second League A Fall Season Gold predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Novosibirsk vs Kaluga?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.24.
Who will win Novosibirsk vs Kaluga?
On our numbers Novosibirsk have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Kaluga 17%.
How many goals will there be in Novosibirsk vs Kaluga?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
When is Novosibirsk vs Kaluga?
Novosibirsk vs Kaluga (Second League A Fall Season Gold) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Spartak.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.