Mineiro 3 · BrazilNacional AC MG vs Venda Nova prediction & analysis
Under 2.5 goals
Fair pick · fair odds 1.94 · bookmaker 1.80 · Won ✓
Value bet: Venda Nova to win @ 2.75 – our chance 40% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Nacional AC MG 1.3 – 1.4 Venda Nova expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Nacional AC MG and Venda Nova on our numbers – 38% for the home side, 40% for the visitors and 22% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Nacional AC MG have taken 9 points from their last 4 matches (3W 0D 1L), scoring 1.5 and conceding 0.5 per game. Venda Nova have 10 points from their last 4 (3W 1D 0L), averaging 3.3 scored and 0.3 conceded.
We expect around 2.7 goals (1.3 for Nacional AC MG, 1.4 for Venda Nova). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 48%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 0–1 (9%), 1–0 (9%).
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals at a 51% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.80 is close to our fair price of 1.94. For a bigger price, Venda Nova to win at 2.75 is our value angle (40% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Venda Nova to win ✗ | 40% | 2.51 | 2.75 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 78% | 1.29 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 52% | 1.91 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 74% | 1.34 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 51% | 1.94 | 1.80 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 72% | 1.38 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 43% | 2.35 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Venda Nova / FT Venda Nova ✗ | 22% | 4.54 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 9% | 10.56 | – |
Form
Nacional AC MG – last 4
| 10 Oct | @ Novo Esporte Clube | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Oct | vs Nova Lavras | 2–1 | W |
| 25 Sep | @ Inter de Minas | 1–0 | W |
| 21 Sep | vs Santarritense | 3–0 | W |
Venda Nova – last 4
| 9 Oct | vs Inter de Minas | 3–0 | W |
| 3 Oct | @ Novo Esporte Clube | 0–0 | D |
| 27 Sep | @ Santarritense | 8–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Nova Lavras | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nacional AC MG and Venda Nova.
Mineiro 3 table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Venda Nova | 5 | +12 | 11 |
| 2 |  Novo Esporte Clube | 5 | +21 | 10 |
| 3 |  Nacional AC MG | 5 | +4 | 10 |
| 4 |  Nova Lavras | 5 | +17 | 9 |
| 5 |  Inter de Minas | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 6 |  Santarritense | 5 | -52 | 0 |
| 1 |  Paracatu | 5 | +10 | 12 |
| 2 |  Betim 2 | 5 | +4 | 12 |
| 3 |  Sao Joao del Rei | 5 | +4 | 9 |
| 4 |  Araxá | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 5 |  Funorte | 5 | -7 | 4 |
| 6 |  Siderurgica | 5 | -12 | 1 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Nacional AC MG vs Venda Nova?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Nacional AC MG vs Venda Nova?
On our numbers Nacional AC MG have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Venda Nova 40%.
How many goals will there be in Nacional AC MG vs Venda Nova?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
When is Nacional AC MG vs Venda Nova?
Nacional AC MG vs Venda Nova (Mineiro 3) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.