Mineiro 3 · BrazilInter de Minas vs Nacional AC MG prediction & analysis
Nacional AC MG or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
Value bet: Nacional AC MG to win @ 1.95 – our chance 61% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Inter de Minas 0.9 – 2.0 Nacional AC MG expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Nacional AC MG travel as clear favourites – 61% to win, against 17% for Inter de Minas.
Inter de Minas have taken 0 points from their last 1 matches (0W 0D 1L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.0 per game. Nacional AC MG have 3 points from their last 1 (1W 0D 0L), averaging 3.0 scored and 0.0 conceded. Nacional AC MG come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.9 goals (0.9 for Inter de Minas, 2.0 for Nacional AC MG). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 0–1 (11%), 0–2 (10%), 1–1 (10%).
Our pick is Nacional AC MG or draw at a 83% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is better than our fair price of 1.20, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Nacional AC MG to win at 1.95 is our value angle (61% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Nacional AC MG to win ✓ | 61% | 1.64 | 1.95 ▲ |
| Double chance | Nacional AC MG or draw ✓ | 83% | 1.20 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 50% | 2.00 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 79% | 1.26 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 55% | 1.81 | 1.73 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 66% | 1.51 | – |
| Half-time result | Nacional AC MG ahead at half-time ✓ | 45% | 2.24 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Nacional AC MG / FT Nacional AC MG ✓ | 39% | 2.56 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✓ | 11% | 9.47 | – |
Form
Inter de Minas – last 1
| 19 Sep | @ Novo Esporte Clube | 1–2 | L |
Nacional AC MG – last 1
| 21 Sep | vs Santarritense | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Inter de Minas and Nacional AC MG.
Mineiro 3 table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Venda Nova | 5 | +12 | 11 |
| 2 |  Novo Esporte Clube | 5 | +21 | 10 |
| 3 |  Nacional AC MG | 5 | +4 | 10 |
| 4 |  Nova Lavras | 5 | +17 | 9 |
| 5 |  Inter de Minas | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 6 |  Santarritense | 5 | -52 | 0 |
| 1 |  Paracatu | 5 | +10 | 12 |
| 2 |  Betim 2 | 5 | +4 | 12 |
| 3 |  Sao Joao del Rei | 5 | +4 | 9 |
| 4 |  Araxá | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 5 |  Funorte | 5 | -7 | 4 |
| 6 |  Siderurgica | 5 | -12 | 1 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Inter de Minas vs Nacional AC MG?
Our pick is Nacional AC MG or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Inter de Minas vs Nacional AC MG?
On our numbers Inter de Minas have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Nacional AC MG 61%.
How many goals will there be in Inter de Minas vs Nacional AC MG?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
When is Inter de Minas vs Nacional AC MG?
Inter de Minas vs Nacional AC MG (Mineiro 3) kicks off on Friday 25 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.