Persha Liga · Ukraine · OSC MetalistMetal Kharkiv vs Yarud Mariupol' prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Fair pick · fair odds 1.94 · bookmaker 1.83 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Metal Kharkiv 1.2 – 1.2 Yarud Mariupol' expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Metal Kharkiv and Yarud Mariupol' on our numbers – 36% for the home side, 40% for the visitors and 24% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Metal Kharkiv have taken 5 points from their last 6 matches (1W 2D 3L), scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.2 per game. Yarud Mariupol' have 14 points from their last 6 (4W 2D 0L), averaging 1.8 scored and 0.7 conceded. Yarud Mariupol' come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.4 goals (1.2 for Metal Kharkiv, 1.2 for Yarud Mariupol'). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 51%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 0–1 (11%), 1–0 (10%).
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 51% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.83 is close to our fair price of 1.94.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Yarud Mariupol' to win ✓ | 40% | 2.52 | 2.20 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 76% | 1.32 | 1.30 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 51% | 1.94 | 1.83 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 70% | 1.44 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 56% | 1.77 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 77% | 1.29 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 45% | 2.22 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Yarud Mariupol' / FT Yarud Mariupol' ✗ | 22% | 4.59 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 11% | 9.01 | – |
Form
Metal Kharkiv – last 6
| 17 Oct | @ Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 0–1 | L |
| 9 Oct | vs Viktoriya Mykolaivka | 2–2 | D |
| 3 Oct | @ Prykarpattia | 0–0 | D |
| 27 Sep | vs Chernihiv | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | @ SK Poltava | 0–3 | L |
| 12 Sep | @ Inhulets | 0–1 | L |
Yarud Mariupol' – last 6
| 17 Oct | vs Inhulets | 4–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | @ UCSA | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Oct | vs Nyva Ternopil | 0–0 | D |
| 27 Sep | @ Oleksandria | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs Polissya II | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Sep | @ Probiy Horodenka | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Metal Kharkiv and Yarud Mariupol'.
Persha Liga table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Viktoriya Mykolaivka | 15 | +10 | 31 |
| 2 |  Yarud Mariupol' | 15 | +9 | 28 |
| 3 |  Oleksandria | 15 | +9 | 27 |
| 4 |  Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 14 | +6 | 26 |
| 5 |  Kulykiv | 15 | +11 | 25 |
| 6 |  SK Poltava | 15 | +11 | 24 |
| 7 |  Nyva Ternopil | 15 | +6 | 22 |
| 8 |  Metal Kharkiv | 15 | +3 | 21 |
| 9 |  Lokomotiv Kyiv | 15 | 0 | 20 |
| 10 |  Inhulets | 14 | -4 | 18 |
| 11 |  Prykarpattia | 15 | -5 | 17 |
| 12 |  UCSA | 15 | -5 | 15 |
| 13 |  Kolos Kovalivka II | 14 | -14 | 13 |
| 14 |  Probiy Horodenka | 15 | -20 | 11 |
| 15 |  Chernihiv | 12 | -6 | 10 |
| 16 |  Polissya II | 15 | -11 | 9 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Metal Kharkiv vs Yarud Mariupol'?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.83.
Who will win Metal Kharkiv vs Yarud Mariupol'?
On our numbers Metal Kharkiv have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Yarud Mariupol' 40%.
How many goals will there be in Metal Kharkiv vs Yarud Mariupol'?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
When is Metal Kharkiv vs Yarud Mariupol'?
Metal Kharkiv vs Yarud Mariupol' (Persha Liga) kicks off on Friday 23 October 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at OSC Metalist.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.