Tapatío vs Mineros de Zacatecas prediction & analysis

Very little separates Tapatío and Mineros de Zacatecas on our numbers – 39% for the home side, 38% for the visitors and 23% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.

Tapatío have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.7 per game. Mineros de Zacatecas have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 2.3 scored and 2.3 conceded.

We expect around 3.9 goals (2.0 for Tapatío, 1.9 for Mineros de Zacatecas). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 74% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 1–1 (8%), 2–1 (8%), 1–2 (7%).

In their last 1 meeting, Tapatío have won 0, Mineros de Zacatecas have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.

Our pick is Both teams to score at a 66% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.57 is better than our fair price of 1.51, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Mineros de Zacatecas to win at 2.90 is our value angle (38% on our numbers).