FAW Championship · Wales · USW Sports ParkPontypridd Town vs Llantwit Major prediction & analysis
Pontypridd Town or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
Value bet: Pontypridd Town to win @ 1.75 – our chance 64% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Pontypridd Town 2.5 – 1.2 Llantwit Major expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Pontypridd Town are clear favourites at home with a 64% chance of winning, against 16% for Llantwit Major.
Pontypridd Town have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.8 per game. Llantwit Major have 7 points from their last 6 (2W 1D 3L), averaging 1.0 scored and 2.2 conceded.
We expect around 3.7 goals (2.5 for Pontypridd Town, 1.2 for Llantwit Major). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 72% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–1 (9%), 3–1 (8%), 2–0 (8%).
In their last 1 meeting, Pontypridd Town have won 0, Llantwit Major have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 4.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Pontypridd Town or draw at a 84% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is close to our fair price of 1.19. For a bigger price, Pontypridd Town to win at 1.75 is our value angle (64% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Pontypridd Town to win ✓ | 64% | 1.56 | 1.75 ▲ |
| Double chance | Pontypridd Town or draw ✓ | 84% | 1.19 | 1.20 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 62% | 1.60 | 1.50 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 89% | 1.13 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 72% | 1.39 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Over 3.5 goals ✓ | 51% | 1.95 | – |
| Half-time result | Pontypridd Town ahead at half-time ✓ | 49% | 2.03 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Pontypridd Town / FT Pontypridd Town ✓ | 43% | 2.31 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 9% | 10.84 | – |
Form
Pontypridd Town – last 6
| 3 Oct | vs Aberystwyth Town | 1–3 | L |
| 25 Sep | @ Caerphilly Athletic | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Sep | vs Afan Lido | 0–1 | L |
| 28 Aug | @ Swansea University | 4–4 | D |
| 21 Aug | vs Trethomas Bluebirds | 2–1 | W |
| 15 Aug | @ Cardiff Draconians | 4–1 | W |
Llantwit Major – last 6
| 2 Oct | @ Carmarthen Town | 2–1 | W |
| 26 Sep | vs llanelli AFC | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | @ Treowen Stars | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Aug | @ Aberystwyth Town | 1–5 | L |
| 15 Aug | vs Baglan Dragons | 0–1 | L |
| 7 Aug | @ Afan Lido | 0–5 | L |
Head to head
| 6 Mar 2026 | Pontypridd Town v Llantwit Major | 0–4 |
FAW Championship table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Pontypridd Town | 13 | +13 | 27 |
| 2 |  Aberystwyth Town | 11 | +18 | 25 |
| 3 |  Swansea University | 11 | +19 | 24 |
| 4 |  Caerau (Ely) | 13 | +1 | 22 |
| 5 |  Baglan Dragons | 13 | 0 | 20 |
| 6 |  Ynyshir Albions | 11 | +7 | 19 |
| 7 |  Afan Lido | 14 | -2 | 18 |
| 8 |  Trethomas Bluebirds | 13 | +3 | 17 |
| 9 |  Treowen Stars | 12 | -1 | 17 |
| 10 |  Carmarthen Town | 13 | -6 | 15 |
| 11 |  Pontardawe Town | 11 | -1 | 14 |
| 12 |  Caerphilly Athletic | 13 | -7 | 14 |
| 13 |  Newport City | 11 | +4 | 13 |
| 14 |  Cardiff Draconians | 11 | -5 | 12 |
| 15 |  Llantwit Major | 12 | -12 | 12 |
| 16 |  llanelli AFC | 14 | -31 | 3 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Pontypridd Town vs Llantwit Major?
Our pick is Pontypridd Town or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Pontypridd Town vs Llantwit Major?
On our numbers Pontypridd Town have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Llantwit Major 16%.
How many goals will there be in Pontypridd Town vs Llantwit Major?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 72% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
When is Pontypridd Town vs Llantwit Major?
Pontypridd Town vs Llantwit Major (FAW Championship) kicks off on Tuesday 6 October 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at USW Sports Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.