France vs Morocco prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.33 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: France 2.0 – 0.9 Morocco expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
France are clear favourites at home with a 65% chance of winning, against 16% for Morocco.
France have taken 18 points from their last 6 matches (6W 0D 0L), scoring 2.8 and conceding 0.5 per game. Morocco have 12 points from their last 6 (3W 3D 0L), averaging 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded. France come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.9 goals (2.0 for France, 0.9 for Morocco). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 54%. Most likely scores: 2–0 (11%), 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (10%).
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 75% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.30 is close to our fair price of 1.33.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | France to win ✓ | 65% | 1.55 | 1.54 |
| Double chance | France or draw ✓ | 84% | 1.18 | 1.11 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 54% | 1.86 | 1.93 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 75% | 1.33 | 1.30 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 52% | 1.93 | 1.93 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 70% | 1.44 | 1.33 |
| Half-time result | France ahead at half-time ✗ | 46% | 2.16 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT France / FT France ✗ | 41% | 2.43 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–0 ✓ | 11% | 8.71 | – |
Form
France – last 6
| 4 Jul | @ Paraguay | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Jun | vs Sweden | 3–0 | W |
| 26 Jun | @ Norway | 4–1 | W |
| 22 Jun | vs Iraq | 3–0 | W |
| 16 Jun | vs Senegal | 3–1 | W |
| 8 Jun | vs Northern Ireland | 3–1 | W |
Morocco – last 6
| 4 Jul | @ Canada | 3–0 | W |
| 30 Jun | @ Netherlands | 1–1 | D |
| 24 Jun | vs Haiti | 4–2 | W |
| 19 Jun | @ Scotland | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Jun | @ Brazil | 1–1 | D |
| 7 Jun | vs Norway | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between France and Morocco.
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for France vs Morocco?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win France vs Morocco?
On our numbers France have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Morocco 16%.
How many goals will there be in France vs Morocco?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
When is France vs Morocco?
France vs Morocco (World Cup) kicks off on Thursday 9 July 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Gillette Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.