First League · Russia · Fisht Olympic StadiumFC Sochi vs Shinnik Yaroslavl prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.37 · bookmaker 1.24
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: FC Sochi 1.8 – 0.8 Shinnik Yaroslavl expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
FC Sochi are clear favourites at home with a 63% chance of winning, against 16% for Shinnik Yaroslavl.
FC Sochi have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.2 per game. Shinnik Yaroslavl have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 1.2 scored and 1.5 conceded.
We expect around 2.6 goals (1.8 for FC Sochi, 0.8 for Shinnik Yaroslavl). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 52%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (14%), 2–0 (12%), 1–1 (10%).
In their last 1 meeting, FC Sochi have won 0, Shinnik Yaroslavl have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 4.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 73% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.24 is close to our fair price of 1.37.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | FC Sochi to win | 63% | 1.58 | 1.64 |
| Double chance | FC Sochi or draw | 84% | 1.19 | 1.14 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score | 52% | 1.94 | 1.82 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals | 73% | 1.37 | 1.24 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals | 51% | 1.98 | 1.88 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals | 71% | 1.40 | 1.30 |
| Half-time result | FC Sochi ahead at half-time | 44% | 2.25 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT FC Sochi / FT FC Sochi | 40% | 2.53 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 | 14% | 7.40 | – |
Form
FC Sochi – last 6
| 7 Nov | @ Enisey | 0–3 | L |
| 1 Nov | vs Ural | 0–2 | L |
| 24 Oct | @ Tekstilshchik | 3–1 | W |
| 16 Oct | @ Rotor Volgograd | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs FC UFA | 1–0 | W |
| 18 Sep | vs Ska-khabarovsk | 1–1 | D |
Shinnik Yaroslavl – last 6
| 7 Nov | vs FC UFA | 2–1 | W |
| 31 Oct | @ Chelyabinsk | 0–2 | L |
| 26 Oct | vs Spartak Kostroma | 2–1 | W |
| 18 Oct | @ Veles | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Oct | @ Nizhny Novgorod | 0–4 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Tekstilshchik | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
| 12 Jul 2026 | Shinnik Yaroslavl v FC Sochi | 2–2 |
First League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nizhny Novgorod | 17 | +37 | 46 |
| 2 |  Ural | 17 | +18 | 34 |
| 3 |  Torpedo Moskva | 17 | +16 | 32 |
| 4 |  FC Sochi | 17 | +6 | 32 |
| 5 |  Veles | 18 | +2 | 31 |
| 6 |  Spartak Kostroma | 17 | +2 | 28 |
| 7 |  Shinnik Yaroslavl | 17 | +4 | 26 |
| 8 |  FC UFA | 17 | +2 | 22 |
| 9 |  Volga Ulyanovsk | 18 | -3 | 22 |
| 10 |  Rotor Volgograd | 17 | +5 | 21 |
| 11 |  Chelyabinsk | 17 | -4 | 21 |
| 12 |  Arsenal Tula | 17 | -15 | 19 |
| 13 |  Leningradets | 17 | -11 | 18 |
| 14 |  Enisey | 17 | -14 | 17 |
| 15 |  Ska-khabarovsk | 17 | -5 | 16 |
| 16 |  KAMAZ | 17 | -9 | 14 |
| 17 |  FK Neftekhimik | 17 | -14 | 13 |
| 18 |  Tekstilshchik | 17 | -17 | 11 |
More First League predictions
League hub →Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for FC Sochi vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.24.
Who will win FC Sochi vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
On our numbers FC Sochi have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Shinnik Yaroslavl 16%.
How many goals will there be in FC Sochi vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
When is FC Sochi vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
FC Sochi vs Shinnik Yaroslavl (First League) kicks off on Saturday 14 November 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Fisht Olympic Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.