First League · Russia · Central StadiumChelyabinsk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.45 · bookmaker 1.36 · Won ✓
Value bet: Shinnik Yaroslavl to win @ 3.12 – our chance 38% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Chelyabinsk 1.2 – 1.3 Shinnik Yaroslavl expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Chelyabinsk and Shinnik Yaroslavl on our numbers – 37% for the home side, 38% for the visitors and 25% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Chelyabinsk have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.7 per game. Shinnik Yaroslavl have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 0.8 scored and 1.2 conceded.
We expect around 2.5 goals (1.2 for Chelyabinsk, 1.3 for Shinnik Yaroslavl). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 58%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 0–1 (10%), 1–0 (10%).
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 69% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.36 is close to our fair price of 1.45. For a bigger price, Shinnik Yaroslavl to win at 3.12 is our value angle (38% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Shinnik Yaroslavl to win ✗ | 38% | 2.62 | 3.12 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 75% | 1.34 | 1.33 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 58% | 1.73 | 1.90 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 69% | 1.45 | 1.36 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 57% | 1.76 | 1.58 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 77% | 1.30 | 1.16 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 44% | 2.26 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Shinnik Yaroslavl / FT Shinnik Yaroslavl ✗ | 21% | 4.68 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 10% | 9.60 | – |
Form
Chelyabinsk – last 6
| 25 Oct | vs Ural | 1–3 | L |
| 18 Oct | @ Tekstilshchik | 1–2 | L |
| 13 Oct | @ Spartak Kostroma | 0–1 | L |
| 9 Oct | @ FK Neftekhimik | 4–2 | W |
| 26 Sep | vs Enisey | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Sep | vs FC UFA | 2–1 | W |
Shinnik Yaroslavl – last 6
| 26 Oct | vs Spartak Kostroma | 2–1 | W |
| 18 Oct | @ Veles | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Oct | @ Nizhny Novgorod | 0–4 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Tekstilshchik | 2–0 | W |
| 27 Sep | vs Ska-khabarovsk | 0–0 | D |
| 18 Sep | vs KAMAZ | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Chelyabinsk and Shinnik Yaroslavl.
First League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nizhny Novgorod | 17 | +37 | 46 |
| 2 |  Ural | 17 | +18 | 34 |
| 3 |  Torpedo Moskva | 17 | +16 | 32 |
| 4 |  FC Sochi | 17 | +6 | 32 |
| 5 |  Veles | 18 | +2 | 31 |
| 6 |  Spartak Kostroma | 17 | +2 | 28 |
| 7 |  Shinnik Yaroslavl | 17 | +4 | 26 |
| 8 |  FC UFA | 17 | +2 | 22 |
| 9 |  Volga Ulyanovsk | 18 | -3 | 22 |
| 10 |  Rotor Volgograd | 17 | +5 | 21 |
| 11 |  Chelyabinsk | 17 | -4 | 21 |
| 12 |  Arsenal Tula | 17 | -15 | 19 |
| 13 |  Leningradets | 17 | -11 | 18 |
| 14 |  Enisey | 17 | -14 | 17 |
| 15 |  Ska-khabarovsk | 17 | -5 | 16 |
| 16 |  KAMAZ | 17 | -9 | 14 |
| 17 |  FK Neftekhimik | 17 | -14 | 13 |
| 18 |  Tekstilshchik | 17 | -17 | 11 |
More First League predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Chelyabinsk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Chelyabinsk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
On our numbers Chelyabinsk have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Shinnik Yaroslavl 38%.
How many goals will there be in Chelyabinsk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
When is Chelyabinsk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
Chelyabinsk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl (First League) kicks off on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Central Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.