First League · Russia · ShinnikShinnik Yaroslavl vs Spartak Kostroma prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.42 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Shinnik Yaroslavl 1.1 – 1.1 Spartak Kostroma expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Shinnik Yaroslavl and Spartak Kostroma on our numbers – 38% for the home side, 37% for the visitors and 26% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Shinnik Yaroslavl have taken 6 points from their last 6 matches (1W 3D 2L), scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.2 per game. Spartak Kostroma have 12 points from their last 6 (4W 0D 2L), averaging 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded. Spartak Kostroma come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.3 goals (1.1 for Shinnik Yaroslavl, 1.1 for Spartak Kostroma). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 52%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 1–0 (12%), 0–1 (12%).
In their last 1 meeting, Shinnik Yaroslavl have won 0, Spartak Kostroma have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 65% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.42 is close to our fair price of 1.54.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Shinnik Yaroslavl to win ✓ | 38% | 2.66 | 2.55 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 74% | 1.35 | 1.36 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 52% | 1.91 | 1.99 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 65% | 1.54 | 1.42 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 61% | 1.64 | 1.51 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 80% | 1.24 | 1.13 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 47% | 2.15 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Shinnik Yaroslavl / FT Shinnik Yaroslavl ✓ | 20% | 4.90 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 12% | 8.46 | – |
Form
Shinnik Yaroslavl – last 6
| 18 Oct | @ Veles | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Oct | @ Nizhny Novgorod | 0–4 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Tekstilshchik | 2–0 | W |
| 27 Sep | vs Ska-khabarovsk | 0–0 | D |
| 18 Sep | vs KAMAZ | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Sep | vs Ural | 1–1 | D |
Spartak Kostroma – last 6
| 17 Oct | vs Leningradets | 2–0 | W |
| 13 Oct | vs Chelyabinsk | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Oct | @ Arsenal Tula | 2–3 | L |
| 26 Sep | vs Ural | 1–2 | L |
| 18 Sep | @ Volga Ulyanovsk | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Sep | vs FK Neftekhimik | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
| 22 Mar 2026 | Spartak Kostroma v Shinnik Yaroslavl | 1–1 |
First League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nizhny Novgorod | 17 | +37 | 46 |
| 2 |  Ural | 17 | +18 | 34 |
| 3 |  Torpedo Moskva | 17 | +16 | 32 |
| 4 |  FC Sochi | 17 | +6 | 32 |
| 5 |  Veles | 18 | +2 | 31 |
| 6 |  Spartak Kostroma | 17 | +2 | 28 |
| 7 |  Shinnik Yaroslavl | 17 | +4 | 26 |
| 8 |  FC UFA | 17 | +2 | 22 |
| 9 |  Volga Ulyanovsk | 18 | -3 | 22 |
| 10 |  Rotor Volgograd | 17 | +5 | 21 |
| 11 |  Chelyabinsk | 17 | -4 | 21 |
| 12 |  Arsenal Tula | 17 | -15 | 19 |
| 13 |  Leningradets | 17 | -11 | 18 |
| 14 |  Enisey | 17 | -14 | 17 |
| 15 |  Ska-khabarovsk | 17 | -5 | 16 |
| 16 |  KAMAZ | 17 | -9 | 14 |
| 17 |  FK Neftekhimik | 17 | -14 | 13 |
| 18 |  Tekstilshchik | 17 | -17 | 11 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Spartak Kostroma?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.42.
Who will win Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Spartak Kostroma?
On our numbers Shinnik Yaroslavl have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Spartak Kostroma 37%.
How many goals will there be in Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Spartak Kostroma?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
When is Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Spartak Kostroma?
Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Spartak Kostroma (First League) kicks off on Monday 26 October 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Shinnik.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.